The Track Record of Godzilla El Niño: History of Extreme Droughts in Indonesia Before 2026

The government faces a policy dilemma with no truly comfortable options. Before entering 2026, Indonesia has recorded several encounters with the El Niño climate phenomenon of very strong intensity, often dubbed “Godzilla El Niño”. The two most significant periods in meteorological history are 1997/1998 and 2015/2016. This phenomenon is characterised by a rise in sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean far above normal, resulting in a sharp drop in rainfall across Indonesia and triggering prolonged hydrometeorological drought disasters. Based on historical records, the main impacts felt by Indonesia during Godzilla El Niño strikes include: The economic impacts of the Godzilla El Niño phenomenon were massive. In 2015, the World Bank estimated Indonesia’s losses from forest and land fires triggered by El Niño at more than Rp221 trillion. Additionally, the agricultural sector experienced a national decline in rice production, forcing the government to import to maintain food reserves. The term “Godzilla” is used by climate experts (such as NASA) to describe an El Niño with a very high temperature anomaly index, whose strength can drastically disrupt global weather patterns. The bitter experiences from those years serve as the foundation for the Indonesian government in formulating more mature mitigation strategies for Godzilla El Niño, including the construction of thousands of reservoirs, optimisation of swamp lands, and strengthening of early warning systems for forest fires, which are now implemented to face similar threats in the future. The threat of forest and land fires (karhutla) is once again looming over Indonesia in 2026 alongside the emergence of the extreme climate phenomenon known as Godzilla El Niño. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman stated that the government is preparing a budget of up to Rp4 trillion for the pump irrigation programme as a strategic step to address potential El Niño impacts. Cianjur Regency in West Java is preparing to face potential dry spells, particularly readiness in the agricultural sector predicted to be affected. Agriculture Minister Andi Amran Sulaiman has urged local governments to immediately map agricultural areas potentially experiencing drought. The National Disaster Management Agency (BNPB) is strengthening national preparedness to face the potential for forest and land fires (karhutla) in 2026.