The Meaning Behind the US Delay in Attacking Iran's Energy Facilities

President of the United States (US) Donald Trump posted a message on his social media account on Saturday (21/3/2026), stating that he would launch a massive attack on Iran’s largest power plant if Iran did not reopen shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

However, two days later, Trump posted a highly contradictory message: the US welcomes the process of talks with Iran for a ceasefire, thus granting an additional five days before deciding whether to proceed with plans to destroy Iran’s power centre.

Iran, in response to Trump’s statement on 21 March, declared that if the US attacked its power plant, Iran would retaliate by targeting power installations and water desalination plants in neighbouring countries.

Life in those countries would undoubtedly become extremely difficult without electricity. However, if water desalination centres in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Israel were destroyed, the level of suffering among the populations of those countries would be far more severe.

Meanwhile, in responding to Trump’s message on 23 March, both Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, the Iranian military spokesperson, and renowned academic Mohammad Marandi, who also advised Iran’s negotiation team with the US before the initial March attack, denied any direct or indirect talks with the US.

They even tended to mock the logic of the possibility of such talks occurring, after the US twice violated the good faith process of negotiations on limiting Iran’s nuclear utilisation by bombing Iran in the midst of ongoing negotiations.

So what is really happening? Why did Trump issue that message on 23 March? If communication between the two parties is indeed underway, why is Iran denying it?

Is Trump, who is known for issuing messages that constantly change, once again conveying untrue information? Or is the Iranian government, which is known for lacking an information transparency system, actually conveying the untrue message that such communication is taking place?

Possibilities If Trump Is the One Who Is Untruthful

Several possibilities explain why Trump issued that misleading message. First, Trump realises that war with Iran is highly costly and risky, so he unilaterally decides to stop it.

The large number of casualties; the skyrocketing global oil and gas prices; disruptions to logistics and all transportation in the Arabian/Persian Gulf region that risk increasing US and global inflation alongside weakening economic growth; attacks on US military installations and facilities in the GCC that provoke antipathy from the public in those countries towards the US; and, of course, the risk that the Republican Party will lose ground or even its majority in Congress in the US legislative elections this November, represent stakes that are too great for Trump. However, to avoid losing face, Trump instead claims that it was Iran that expressed a desire for a ceasefire.

Second, Trump is shocked and completely unprepared for Iran’s toughness and resilience in this war. The high morale supported by strong moral conviction from the administration of the Islamic Republic of Iran government and an effective military, even after all its top leadership has been killed, is entirely beyond Trump’s and his cabinet’s expectations.

Trump has retreated from the objective of regime change in Iran’s government, and with that message, he even signals readiness to negotiate with the same regime. Realising the risk that the US could become trapped in a prolonged war in Iran has awakened Trump to stop it immediately. The cynical term often used by many since Liberation Day is TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out).

Third, at the same time as this statement was made, the US was mobilising marines prepared for land attacks and reinforcements of its weaponry. The USS George H.W. Bush, a US aircraft carrier, has been moving from its base in Norfolk, Virginia, to the Middle East since the end of last week.

This deployment is to replace the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, which is undergoing repairs at Souda Bay Base, Crete Island, Greece. This means the five-day period is needed to buy time for the mobilisation of troops and US military reinforcements to arrive in the war zone.

Fourth, various financial analyses indicate that 15 minutes before the 23 March announcement, there was a massive anomalous spike in transactions in the commodities/futures oil market taking positions that Brent and WTI oil prices, then around US$110-115, would drop drastically.

And indeed, oil prices fell nearly 20 percent just minutes after Trump’s announcement, due to sentiment that the ceasefire would lead to normalisation of the heavily pressured situation caused by the war. Analysts say it is too extraordinary to consider this mere coincidence and suspect insider trading.

Possibilities If Iran Is the One Who Is Untruthful

Even though thousands of Iranian casualties have fallen, accompanied by massive damage to military facilities and public infrastructure in Iran due to this war, the Iranian government and military feel they have the upper hand. Iran’s ability to continue attacking Israel and the GCC; the unmatched closure of the Strait of Hormuz by the US or its allies; the resilience and effectiveness of the Iranian government and military even after being pounded at over 7,000 targets; and the high morale and spirit of the Iranian population amid this existential war prove that Iran does not need to request a ceasefire from the US.

On the contrary, the confident Iranian government is instead demanding several preconditions for a ceasefire and the start of negotiations, namely: cessation and guarantees that there will be no US and Israeli attacks in the future; and