The INdonesian enigma: Economic, leadership crises

The INdonesian enigma: Economic, leadership crises

Sayidiman Suryohadiprojo, Former Governor National Resilience
Institute (Lemhanas), Jakarta

Indonesia is again facing a serious crisis of leadership and
government in the face of mass demonstrations that have spread
beyond Jakarta, involving students and even housewives.

The government decision to increase oil, telephone and
electricity prices at the same time, though later modified, was
indeed a very brave act. We must assume President Megawati
Soekarnoputri, Vice President Hamzah Haz and the other members of
the government have the common sense to understand that such a
drastic decision would create strong reactions amid already
difficult living conditions.

Being politicians they certainly could have guessed that
negative reactions would be manipulated by their political
opponents. All our politicians are known for their preparations
for the coming 2004 elections, including the election of the
president and vice president.

That in spite of these consequences the President and her
ministers made the radical decision, is an indication that they
were really pressed to do so. If the decision was really
inevitable why did the government not make the very important
psychological preparations to prevent negative reactions?

The President and her assistants made a very serious mistake
in this respect, or had entirely misjudged the people's mind. Is
it because most or all of the ministers and the President and
Vice President, belonging to the middle class, do not feel and
understand the commoner's difficulties?

One cannot avoid doubting the government's serious defense of
their decision when after facing mass demonstrations, they so
easily change the price increases. This retreat is proof, in
particular for the students, that the decision was not seriously
thought over after all -- hence the rallies continued.

However, the initial opposition to price increases only has
now become a more serious development -- a strong voice urging
Megawati and Hamzah to step down.

Those who want this leadership change base their demand on the
fact that the national leadership no longer has the support and
trust of the majority of the people. Many decisions and judgments
are not in accordance with what the people really need.

There are also people who strongly believe that the President
is indeed not good enough for her job. From the start of her
presidency some questioned Megawati's intellectual capabilities
to make her an effective head of state.

This doubt became stronger when the President kept silent in
many instances where her opinion could be important to guide the
nation. But her supporters defended her silence by comparing it
with the attitude of her predecessor, President Abdurrahman
Wahid, whose many statements and expressions were causing more
negative than positive reactions. So after balancing the negative
and positive factors most of the people agree that it is better
that Megawati and her government remain in office until the
coming elections in 2004.

But now people again begin to doubt whether it is really
better for the nation to keep Megawati until 2004. Many decisions
are badly hurting the nation, like the sale of Indosat and other
decisions around the privatization of state owned firms, the
price increases, and others.

There is an increasing concern that during these two years
more government misjudgments will happen. People are now thinking
about replacing Megawati by forming a Presidium that will lead
the state until the 2004 elections.

However, others feel that such a change will harm our
democratization process. Following reformasi, two presidents in a
row were forced to step down, namely B.J. Habibie and Abdurrahman
Wahid. It would be very bad for democratic developments if the
President must again step down without a normal election process.

Moreover, there is no assurance that a Presidium can work
effectively to lead the nation with its multidimensional
problems. And it is doubtful whether the personalities that form
the Presidium are really capable, knowing the prevailing
mentality and weaknesses among the political elite.

So to prolong the presidency of Megawati until 2004 may indeed
be disastrous for Indonesia. But to replace her now will not
bring any improvements, it could even be worse. This is the first
dilemma which troubles Indonesia today.

The second dilemma is caused by the leadership problem. The
key solution would be a leadership with a much higher quality.
First, leadership than can enforce discipline, including to
itself.

How can we have legal supremacy without any discipline? And
how can we have a sound democratic political system and economic
improvement without effective laws? During the Soeharto regime
discipline was already weak, but after reformasi discipline
deteriorated substantially when freedom and democracy were
interpreted as the total liberty to do everything one wanted.
This excessive freedom has not been restrained until today with
all the negative consequences.

Effective leadership should entail strong physical and moral
courage. It should be able to confront the several interests of
the culprits of collusion, corruption and nepotism, that would
feel threatened by actions to bring them to court. And it should
have the moral courage to make unpopular decisions, if they are
really needed to better the nation.

To gain public confidence, leadership must demonstrate
consistency by its actions, and decisions should not differ from
statements. Leaders who tell the people to live austerely, but
swim in luxury, would make people cynical. Until today
consistency has never been a strong feature of our leaders,
dating back to the first president Sukarno up to his daughter,
today's president.

Leadership must consist of achievement-oriented people. Not
people who are fond of theorizing only without the ambition to
make these theories reality.

People get confused listening to the many debates among so-
called political, economic and security observers, who do not
have the capability to achieve when they are in an executive
position.

We cannot hope to have real positive change unless this
leadership requirement is met. The second dilemma is caused by
the fact that this kind of leadership cannot develop in the
present political system. A political system that is controlled
by the political parties, in particular the large one, whose
leaders are not interested in a different kind of leadership.

People with good intentions and with promising basic qualities
are reluctant to enter political life, realizing they cannot
break the prevailing traditions. Some try to form their own
parties, but these new parties do not have the capability to be
influential. Many of the new parties even enhance the political
malaise.

It is therefore far from certain that the 2004 elections will
make Indonesia much more capable to bring improvements in solving
the multidimensional problems. And Megawati's challenge to her
opponents and competitors might not be too unrealistic. Another
term for her is not impossible given the quality and capability
of her aspiring opponents. But what would happen to Indonesia if
that comes true?