The impact of Wiranto's presidential bid

Bantarto Bandoro, Jakarta

To the surprise of many, domestically and internationally, Gen. (ret.) Wiranto trounced Golkar Party leader Akbar Tandjung in the party's first-ever internal election, making him a strong contender for the presidential position. He is now positioned as one of two former generals with the best chance to beat Megawati Soekarnoputri for the presidency. The other ex-general, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, is leading Megawati and Wiranto in the popularity polls.

It will be interesting to see what impact Wiranto's victory -- the message sent out by the Golkar convention -- has on the strategies of other presidential candidates and their political parties.

Many used to associate Golkar with the glory days of ex- dictator Soeharto, but its profile has changed considerably since the fall of its patron. The party has gone through a long process of redefining its position in the political spectrum, making the necessary internal adjustments to keep pace with the current wave of reformation.

Golkar's decision last year to launch a convention reflected the awareness of its leaders the party's image should be changed through a series of internal democratic reforms. These changes would help rebuild the public trust it had lost during the Soeharto era.

The nomination of Wiranto came out of a built-in democratic process, one that allowed convention delegates to freely express their preferences as to who was Golkar's best presidential candidate.

Wiranto, while still under the shadow of international war crime accusations, will have to convince the public in the next election that he can lead the country into stability and provide firmer foundations for future democratic and political reform.

The reason for Wiranto's appeal is that there is something of a nostalgia in the country for what was perceived as the strong leadership under Soeharto, a yearning for greater political stability and a return to economic growth. It reflects a view in some parts of Indonesia that the country needs strength and decisiveness in government. Wiranto, as the former head of the Indonesian military, fits their bill.

Many people here are also disappointed with Megawati's leadership and see Wiranto as someone who can keep Indonesia together and deal with all the forces that would threaten the country's national integrity or unity. The challenge for Wiranto, therefore, will be to strike a balance between the need for national stability and the imperative to keep the democratization process moving.

The problem with Wiranto's bid for the presidency is not so much about his Military background -- that he represents a stumbling block for the development of democracy, as feared by many here. It is much more about the possible impact of his presidency on Indonesian foreign relations.

The possibility that Wiranto succeeds in keeping democracy on track will not automatically eliminate the perceptions of some members of the international community he is a war criminal.

Last year, United Nations-funded prosecutors in East Timor indicted Wiranto on charges of war crimes against humanity, claiming he bore the ultimate responsibility for the Military- backed slaughter and destruction that occurred during Indonesia's bloody withdrawal from its break-away province in 1999.

Such accusations were bluntly denied by Wiranto and it seems unlikely he will face this court. Some members of the international community are angry, claiming the Indonesian government lacked the will to respond properly to allegations Wiranto was responsible for the devastation in East Timor.

Wiranto's candidacy is thus controversial outside the country. It could cause severe rifts in Indonesia's relationship with the United States, Europe, Japan and Australia and New Zealand. If the world still believes Wiranto is a possible war criminal, he will definitely have a hard time, especially in Western countries. Wiranto, however, is unlikely to have problems in countries like Myanmar or China.

Wiranto's candidacy is a big political blow to East Timor. East Timor Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta visiting Melbourne recently, reacted strongly to the announcement, saying if Wiranto became Indonesian president it would put East Timor and Indonesia in an extremely awkward situation. There is no doubt Indonesia's relation with East Timor would certainly face problems.

If Wiranto was elected Indonesia's president, Indonesia would face severe challenges, particularly from outside the country, and we would have to conduct our foreign policy under tight international scrutiny.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in particular, might be forced to take a more defensive stance if their was strong criticism from the international community towards the government. However, sanctions imposed on Indonesia by Western countries, particularly the U.S., as experienced by Myanmar, are unlikely.

But a government headed by a alleged war criminal is bound to debilitate Indonesia's future efforts in international diplomacy. It would certainly be an additional burden for Indonesia's foreign relations, especially when the country has shown its commitment to adhere to the principles of multilateralism. International multilateral forums will become places for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to defend the country's international image. And this is not to suggest Indonesia will also be free of criticism in bilateral forums. Whatever the meeting, we will be tainted with the perception we have elected an alleged war criminal as president.

What we would see then, is a situation in which our international diplomacy would have no option but to adjust to the changed domestic setting. Our diplomats would probably feel uncomfortable carrying our their duties as they would have to represent and defend a regime unpopular to most parts of the international community who fully respect human rights. The accomplishment of our international diplomatic goals requires the ability to counter foreign pressures and minimize their impact on the stability our long-term foreign relations.

The writer (bandoro@csis.or.id) is Editor of The Indonesian Quarterly of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). He is also a lecturer at the International Relations Post Graduate Studies Program, Faculty of Social and Political Science, University of Indonesia, Jakarta.