The impact of Wiranto's presidential bid

The impact of Wiranto's presidential bid

Bantarto Bandoro, Jakarta

To the surprise of many, domestically and internationally,
Gen. (ret.) Wiranto trounced Golkar Party leader Akbar Tandjung
in the party's first-ever internal election, making him a strong
contender for the presidential position. He is now positioned as
one of two former generals with the best chance to beat Megawati
Soekarnoputri for the presidency. The other ex-general, Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, is leading Megawati and Wiranto in the
popularity polls.

It will be interesting to see what impact Wiranto's victory --
the message sent out by the Golkar convention -- has on the
strategies of other presidential candidates and their political
parties.

Many used to associate Golkar with the glory days of ex-
dictator Soeharto, but its profile has changed considerably since
the fall of its patron. The party has gone through a long process
of redefining its position in the political spectrum, making the
necessary internal adjustments to keep pace with the current wave
of reformation.

Golkar's decision last year to launch a convention reflected
the awareness of its leaders the party's image should be changed
through a series of internal democratic reforms. These changes
would help rebuild the public trust it had lost during the
Soeharto era.

The nomination of Wiranto came out of a built-in democratic
process, one that allowed convention delegates to freely express
their preferences as to who was Golkar's best presidential
candidate.

Wiranto, while still under the shadow of international war
crime accusations, will have to convince the public in the next
election that he can lead the country into stability and provide
firmer foundations for future democratic and political reform.

The reason for Wiranto's appeal is that there is something of
a nostalgia in the country for what was perceived as the strong
leadership under Soeharto, a yearning for greater political
stability and a return to economic growth. It reflects a view in
some parts of Indonesia that the country needs strength and
decisiveness in government. Wiranto, as the former head of the
Indonesian military, fits their bill.

Many people here are also disappointed with Megawati's
leadership and see Wiranto as someone who can keep Indonesia
together and deal with all the forces that would threaten the
country's national integrity or unity. The challenge for Wiranto,
therefore, will be to strike a balance between the need for
national stability and the imperative to keep the democratization
process moving.

The problem with Wiranto's bid for the presidency is not so
much about his Military background -- that he represents a
stumbling block for the development of democracy, as feared by
many here. It is much more about the possible impact of his
presidency on Indonesian foreign relations.

The possibility that Wiranto succeeds in keeping democracy on
track will not automatically eliminate the perceptions of some
members of the international community he is a war criminal.

Last year, United Nations-funded prosecutors in East Timor
indicted Wiranto on charges of war crimes against humanity,
claiming he bore the ultimate responsibility for the Military-
backed slaughter and destruction that occurred during Indonesia's
bloody withdrawal from its break-away province in 1999.

Such accusations were bluntly denied by Wiranto and it seems
unlikely he will face this court. Some members of the
international community are angry, claiming the Indonesian
government lacked the will to respond properly to allegations
Wiranto was responsible for the devastation in East Timor.

Wiranto's candidacy is thus controversial outside the country.
It could cause severe rifts in Indonesia's relationship with the
United States, Europe, Japan and Australia and New Zealand. If
the world still believes Wiranto is a possible war criminal, he
will definitely have a hard time, especially in Western
countries. Wiranto, however, is unlikely to have problems in
countries like Myanmar or China.

Wiranto's candidacy is a big political blow to East Timor.
East Timor Foreign Minister Jose Ramos Horta visiting Melbourne
recently, reacted strongly to the announcement, saying if Wiranto
became Indonesian president it would put East Timor and Indonesia
in an extremely awkward situation. There is no doubt Indonesia's
relation with East Timor would certainly face problems.

If Wiranto was elected Indonesia's president, Indonesia would
face severe challenges, particularly from outside the country,
and we would have to conduct our foreign policy under tight
international scrutiny.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in particular, might be
forced to take a more defensive stance if their was strong
criticism from the international community towards the
government. However, sanctions imposed on Indonesia by Western
countries, particularly the U.S., as experienced by Myanmar, are
unlikely.

But a government headed by a alleged war criminal is bound to
debilitate Indonesia's future efforts in international diplomacy.
It would certainly be an additional burden for Indonesia's
foreign relations, especially when the country has shown its
commitment to adhere to the principles of multilateralism.
International multilateral forums will become places for the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs to defend the country's international
image. And this is not to suggest Indonesia will also be free of
criticism in bilateral forums. Whatever the meeting, we will be
tainted with the perception we have elected an alleged war
criminal as president.

What we would see then, is a situation in which our
international diplomacy would have no option but to adjust to the
changed domestic setting. Our diplomats would probably feel
uncomfortable carrying our their duties as they would have to
represent and defend a regime unpopular to most parts of the
international community who fully respect human rights. The
accomplishment of our international diplomatic goals requires the
ability to counter foreign pressures and minimize their impact on
the stability our long-term foreign relations.

The writer (bandoro@csis.or.id) is Editor of The Indonesian
Quarterly of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies
(CSIS). He is also a lecturer at the International Relations Post
Graduate Studies Program, Faculty of Social and Political
Science, University of Indonesia, Jakarta.