The Impact of THR and BHR: Driving Economic Growth Amid Inflation?

The Tunjangan Hari Raya (THR) and Bonus Hari Raya (BHR) are stimuli that can act as a link in the chain of economic growth. Consequently, THR and BHR are projected to be important factors in driving economic growth in the first quarter of 2026. Economist Arfian Prasetya Aji of Kisi Asset Management explained that the contribution of THR and BHR works like interlinked chains across sectors. Furthermore, the logistics sector will benefit from significantly increased demand for goods transport ahead of Eid al-Fitr. ‘Additionally, the tourism and transport sectors will also benefit from higher mobility. In other words, there will be a high multiplier effect in that period,’ he told Kompas.com. Arfian explained, in brief, that the THR and BHR are indeed among the components capable of driving Indonesia’s economic growth. ‘With THR and BHR, there can be a massive liquidity injection into society in a short time, and the funds do not stop at the recipients’ hands,’ he added. ‘He also emphasised that because this momentum occurs entirely in the first quarter, the circulation of funds can be a strong catalyst for Indonesia’s economic growth in Q1 2026.’ ‘Ramadan momentum cannot be separated from the phenomenon of rising food prices.’ ‘On the positive side, our core inflation currently, which reflects household purchasing power, remains relatively stagnant; the rise is driven by the increase in gold prices,’ he said. ‘He cited that in January, core inflation was 2.45 percent, but if the gold component is excluded, core inflation is only 1.33 percent.’ ‘In other words, inflation remains relatively low and indeed with THR and BHR this is expected to strengthen purchasing power,’ he said. ‘The government is preparing THR for civil servants (ASN) around Rp 55 trillion, while THR for private sector workers is estimated at Rp 124 trillion.’ ‘Separately, BHR for on-demand ride-hailing drivers is estimated at around Rp 220 billion, bringing total disbursed funds to around Rp 179.22 trillion.’ ‘We estimate the multiplier effect from disbursing THR and BHR will raise growth by 0.3 to 0.8 percentage points in Q1-2026,’ he said.