The Fate of Indonesian Shipping Issuers During War: Who is Safest and Set to Reap Profits?
Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly those threatening the stability of strategic routes like the Strait of Hormuz, are escalating risks to the global maritime supply chain.
The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial chokepoint for the distribution of the world’s crude oil and liquefied natural gas. Disruptions to this route have historically triggered spikes in global oil prices and altered the structure of international sea freight tariffs.
Nevertheless, the impact of these dynamics is not evenly distributed across all shipping companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX). Based on business models, operational routes, and contract structures, domestic shipping issuers have varying levels of sensitivity.
The following is a fundamental analysis of shipping issuers based on Q3 2025 financial data, classified from those least affected to those most benefited.
Group Least Affected
Tugboat and barge issuers focused on transporting domestic dry bulk commodities are in the most isolated position from Middle East conflicts. The operational performance of companies in this segment is purely driven by domestic commodity demand, such as coal and nickel, as well as national industrial downstreaming policies.
Their fleets operate in shallow waters, rivers, and inter-island coastal areas, thus having no exposure to international shipping lanes. Increases in global oil prices only have a minor impact in the form of adjustments to industrial diesel fuel costs, which in many work contracts can often be passed on to the charterer.
The table below shows that issuers in this sector continue to achieve solid operating margins.
PT Mitrabahtera Segara Sejati Tbk (MBSS) recorded very high efficiency with a net profit margin of 46.3% and net profit growth of 55.8% year-on-year. Debt levels in this sector are also very conservative, as seen from the low debt-to-equity ratio.
Group Slightly Affected and Cost-Vulnerable: Containers and Gas
This group includes domestic or regional container shipping and gas carrier issuers. Container shipping companies have particular vulnerability to Middle East disruptions.
Spikes in global crude oil prices will directly transmit drastic increases in ship fuel costs. If companies fail to quickly adjust freight rates to consumers, this fuel burden will directly pressure operating profit margins.
On the other hand, domestic gas carrier fleets have long-term delivery contracts with stable values, so their revenues do not surge even as global energy prices heat up.
Based on financial data, container issuers like PT Samudera Indonesia Tbk (SMDR) and PT Temas Tbk (TMAS) still show stable revenue growth.
Both are valued at varying market valuations, where SMDR trades at a deeply discounted price-to-book ratio of 0.41x, while TMAS offers higher equity efficiency with a return on equity of 12.11%.
Group Moderately Affected: Offshore Support
Issuers supporting offshore activities have a lagged positive correlation to tensions in major global oil field areas. Conflicts trigger supply concerns, thereby keeping crude oil prices at a higher equilibrium level.
This solid energy price situation is the main catalyst for oil and gas exploration companies to upwardly revise their capital expenditure budgets. Increased offshore drilling activity will directly absorb the supply of support vessels, boosting fleet operational utilisation rates and gradually raising daily charter rates.
Fundamentals in this sector show a fairly thick gross margin structure. PT Wintermar Offshore Marine Tbk (WINS) recorded a gross margin of 38.0% with a very conservative capital structure, reflected in a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.25x and interest coverage capability of 16.75 times. This provides crucial financial flexibility if the business cycle begins to expand aggressively.
Group Highly Affected: International Tankers
The most fundamentally benefited position from global energy route disruptions is issuers managing international-scale oil and chemical tanker fleets. Obstructions in narrow and crucial routes like the Strait of Hormuz force commercial vessels to seek longer alternative routes.
This sudden increase in mileage sharply reduces the available ship space supply in the market, resulting in spikes in global spot market freight rates. Issuers with a large fleet portion in the spot market will directly receive escalations in operational revenues.
Q3 data shows that both major players in this sector have booked aligned net profit growth. PT Buana Lintas Lautan Tbk (BULL) achieved 11.9% profit growth year-on-year, while PT Soechi Lines Tbk (SOCI) grew 9.4%.
Special attention is on SOCI’s market valuation, which is still traded at a deep asset discount with a price-to-book ratio of 0.22x, leaving substantial margin of safety amid the momentum of rising global shipping rates.