The Death of Khamenei, the Rise of Turkey, and the Future of Palestine
The Middle East stands at a historical crossroads. The escalation between Israel and Iran, which successfully targeted Ali Khamenei, Iran’s Supreme Leader, along with several senior military and defence officials in an attack on 28 February 2026, the regime shift in Syria on 8 December 2024, and the strengthening role of Turkey under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan are reshaping the regional balance of power.
In this rapidly changing landscape, a fundamental question emerges: do these dynamics bring the Palestinian struggle closer to justice, or push it further away?
For many observers, every setback to Iran is viewed as a weakening of the “axis of resistance” that has long championed the Palestinian cause. Conversely, for Israel, weakening Iran is perceived as an existential necessity to secure the nation from strategic threats. Caught between these two narratives, the fate of the Palestinian people is often swept along by the calculations of great powers.
The Iran-Israel Escalation: Between Security and Hegemony
For Israel, Iran is not merely a regional competitor but a structural threat—through its military programme and networks of proxy alliances in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, and Gaza. Conversely, Iran positions itself as the chief defender of Palestine in its rhetoric and political support.
However, when conflict escalates into direct or semi-direct confrontation, global attention tends to shift from the civilian suffering in Gaza towards regional stability and global oil prices. In this context, major escalations often damage the Palestinian struggle morally and diplomatically, as humanitarian issues that should be central become subsumed within narratives of inter-state conflict.
The Palestinian cause loses universal sympathy when it is perceived as part of a particular geopolitical bloc. Yet the Palestinian struggle’s moral legitimacy lies precisely in universal principles: the right to land, self-determination, and human dignity.
Syria and the Shift in Alignment
The major changes in Damascus and the emergence of a widely recognised new government carry significant implications. Figures like Bashar al-Assad, who previously served as a crucial node in Iran’s network across the Levant, have been replaced. The regime change will alter calculations for Russia, Iran, Turkey, and even the Gulf Arab states.
In this scenario, Israel faces a new reality in the north: no longer the Iran-Syria axis as before, but a configuration that may be more plural and open to regional diplomacy. However, regime change does not automatically translate into a shift in orientation towards Israel or Palestine.
Foreign policy always operates within the framework of national interest. Moreover, Syria under President Ahmed al-Syara’ is focused on rebuilding the economic, social, and political structures devastated during the 2011-2024 revolution, and is not inclined to provoke Israel at the border, particularly regarding the Golan Heights, whilst seeking to limit Israeli intervention in areas inhabited predominantly by Kurds and Druze.