The challenges for next-president Susilo

The challenges for next-president Susilo

Umar Juoro, Jakarta

The early results of last Monday's presidential election
clearly show that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono will win the
presidency convincingly with about 60 percent of the vote. We see
again the overwhelming expression of the voters for change.

Actually, the voters who chose Susilo do not yet even know
the details of his programs. In other words, the popularity of
the candidate counted more than his manifesto.

Meanwhile, the voters gave the thumbs down to incumbent
President Megawati, not because she was unpopular, but due to the
disappointing performance of her government.

This clearly shows Indonesian voters behaved asymmetrically
towards the presidential candidates. They elected Susilo mainly
on the back of his personal popularity and the strong desire for
change and voted down the incumbent president for her poor
performance.

This same situation is likely to happen again in the 2009
presidential election when voters will reelect or reject the
incumbent, Susilo, based on his performance, not his personal
popularity. This means his administration's ability to solve the
main problems that the country faces, such as the economy,
unemployment, and corruption, will determine the fate of his
presidency.

The first challenge Susilo faces is to assemble a capable and
solid cabinet consisting not only of men and women who are
knowledgeable and experienced in their fields, but also who are
be able to deal with the political hurdles posed by the House of
Representatives, vested-interest groups, and local
administrations.

One of the issues is whether Susilo will retain the current
Finance Minister Boediono. If Boediono is retained, there is a
serious potential conflict in policy approaches as he has been
known to favor a consistently conservative fiscal stance, while
Jusuf Kalla is known for his expansive fiscal policies.

Similarly, the issue of synergy between ministers with
professional backgrounds and who have political party backing
should be addressed early on and properly in order to create a
well-orchestrated cabinet.

In dealing with the House, Susilo's administration will face a
serious problem. His Democrartic Party-led coalition has a
minority in the House with the majority of seats held jointly by
the newly formed opposition of the Golkar Party and the
Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle or PDI-P.

A comprise solution by accommodating party leaders from Golkar
and PDI-P in his cabinet would not guarantee good cooperation and
relationships between the executive and the legislative branches.
But Susilo could still consider including Golkar in his ruling
coalition as this party may drop its current chairman Akbar
Tandjung at its national congress in November.

Developing a coalition with Golkar would give the necessary
support in the House for the Susilo administration in pushing
ahead with its legislative agenda and other strategic policy
measures that require the House's endorsement.

Susilo will also encounter many problems in provincial and
regional legislatures as they are also mostly dominated by Golkar
and the PDI-P.

For example, the alliance of Susilo's Democratic Party and the
Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), which controls majority seats in
the Jakarta legislature, failed recently to make the PKS
candidate the speaker of the City Council. He lost to a Golkar
candidate from a minority faction in the council.

Susilo's coalition with Golkar, at least in the post-Akbar
era, would strengthen support for Susilo's administration in
dealing with local administrations, especially with regards to
concentrated efforts to create a conducive environment for
investment.

Susilo will find it much easier in dealing with the business
community. The only thing that has to be clarified is the
misunderstanding among Indonesian Chinese entrepreneurs that his
vice president Jusuf Kalla would implement an affirmative action
policy in favor of indigenous-run (pribumi) businesses at the
expense of the Chinese.

In regards to labor issues, Susilo should be assisted by a
manpower minister capable of convincing trade unions of the
importance of flexible labor rules to stimulate businesses and
new investments in order to create more jobs. Handling labor
issues is a very difficult job in this open political
environment.

Finally, Susilo should demonstrate his resoluteness to
strengthen law enforcement and combat corruption in order to
improve his credibility.

It is better for Susilo's attorney general and chief of police
to initially zero in on a carefully selected number of high-
profile corruption cases with a high probability of verdicts to
build up public's confidence in the campaign against graft.

It is well-advised for Susilo to realize that
what is important for the voters is the result. Voters in a
direct presidential election system can change quickly from being
supporters to detractors if their elected president fails to
deliver on his promises early on.

The writer is a senior fellow at the Habibie Center.