The 2026 Dry Season Arrives Earlier, Peak in August

BMKG (Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika) predicts that much of Indonesia will enter the 2026 dry season earlier than climatological averages, with the peak expected in August. The shift is triggered by the end of the weak La Niña in February 2026, which has moved into a Neutral phase and could progress toward El Niño in mid-year. BMKG Director Teuku Faisal Fathani explained that monitoring global climate anomalies in the Pacific shows the current ENSO index at -0.28 (Neutral) and is expected to hold until June 2026. Nevertheless, from mid-year there is a 50-60% chance of El Niño of weak to moderate strength in the second half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is forecast to remain neutral throughout the year. Ardhasena Sopaheluwakan, Deputy for Climatology at BMKG, detailed that 184 ZOM (26.3%) would enter the dry season in May 2026, and 163 ZOM (23.3%) in June. Based on these figures, 325 ZOM (46.5%) are expected to see an earlier dry season, 173 ZOM (24.7%) around normal timing, and 72 ZOM (10.3%) late.

Areas predicted to experience an earlier dry season include most of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara, southern and eastern Kalimantan, most of Sulawesi, Maluku, and parts of Papua. BMKG’s analysis indicates the peak of the dry season across most of Indonesia will occur in August 2026, covering 429 ZOM or about 61.4% of the country. Other regions will reach peak in July (12.6%) and September (14.3%).

Regions expected to reach peak in July include parts of Sumatra, central and northern Kalimantan, and parts of Java, Nusa Tenggara, Sulawesi, Maluku and western Papua. By August, for a larger swathe of the archipelago, dry conditions are expected to dominate central and southern Sumatra, Central Java to East Java, most of Kalimantan and Sulawesi, all of Bali and Nusa Tenggara, and parts of Maluku and Papua.

In September, peak dryness will persist in parts of Lampung, small areas of Java, and most of NTT; it will also be felt in northern and eastern Sulawesi, most of North Maluku, parts of Maluku, and small areas of Papua.