Thank You IHSG, Investor Patience Reaches New Heights This Ramadan

Wall Street ultimately rebounded on Monday or Tuesday Indonesian time. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 387.94 points or 0.83% to close at 46,946.41. The S&P 500 surged 1.01% to 6,699.38, whilst the Nasdaq Composite strengthened 1.22% to close at 22,374.18.

Meta shares climbed more than 2% following reports that the company plans to lay off more than 20% of its workforce. Additionally, Nvidia shares rose more than 1% as the GTC conference commenced on Monday.

This movement followed the S&P 500 recording declines for three consecutive weeks and closing at the lowest level of the year on Friday.

Oil prices surged last week, with Brent crude closing above US$100 per barrel for the first time since 2022. Oil prices jumped due to shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global shipping route, being effectively halted since the war began.

During Monday trading, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell 5.3% to close at US$93.52 per barrel, after trading above US$100 per barrel during overnight trading. Meanwhile, Brent crude fell 2.05% to US$101.21 per barrel.

Oil prices declined after US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told CNBC on Monday that the United States is allowing Iranian oil tankers to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Additional pressure on oil prices also came from a Wall Street Journal report stating that the US will soon announce a coalition of countries to escort ships passing through the strait, citing several officials.

However, President Donald Trump’s statement to reporters on Monday afternoon indicated that the coalition had not yet been fully formed, as he urged other countries to become involved.

Oil prices temporarily rose from their lows following these comments, but remained lower during that trading session.

Trump on Friday ordered strikes against Iranian military assets on Kharg Island. Although the strikes did not impact oil infrastructure, Trump stated the US would consider attacking those facilities if Iran continued blocking the Strait of Hormuz.

Trump also told NBC over the weekend that Iran wants to reach a deal, but he is not ready to do so.

“The market truly believes that Trump is thinking about market interests in the long term,” said David Krakauer, vice president of portfolio management at Mercer Advisors, quoted from CNBC International.

More specifically, markets remain somewhat dependent on the belief that he can end this conflict if he truly wishes to, particularly if the situation begins to deteriorate.

Despite heightened geopolitical tensions, share selling has remained relatively limited. In fact, the S&P 500 remains just over 4% below the all-time high reached earlier this year.

“There is uncertainty. The situation could change rapidly. In the fog of war, typically you just endure and wait,” Krakauer told CNBC.

Share gains on Monday had been long awaited after several weeks of pressure due to the Iran war. However, these gains were not accompanied by strong trading volume, something bullish investors typically expect to demonstrate confidence in market movements. Trading volume on both the NYSE and Nasdaq during Monday’s session was recorded far below average.

Indonesia’s financial markets will close trading this week today, Tuesday, 17 March 2026, before the extended Eid and Nyepi holidays until next Tuesday.

Several sentiments from domestic and international sources will drive the stock market and the rupiah. These include Bank Indonesia’s interest rate decision, government policies, and war developments.

Here are some sentiments for today:

Grey Ramadan for IHSG

Today will be the last IHSG trading day during Ramadan 1447 H or 2026. For investors, IHSG during this Ramadan is not something to be remembered fondly because the battered IHSG has caused many investors to suffer losses.

During Ramadan or since 19 February 2026 until Monday last week (16 March 2026), IHSG has already plummeted 15%. This record is particularly poor considering that over the past five years, IHSG has often strengthened during Ramadan. In Ramadan 2025, for example, IHSG soared 3.8%.

Another poor record is the extent of red-zone closures during Ramadan. Over 18 trading days in this year’s Ramadan, IHSG only strengthened five times whilst the remainder, or 72%, ended in the red zone.

IHSG’s pace has also plummeted from 8,310 the day before Ramadan to 7,022.88 last Monday.

During this year’s Ramadan, investor patience has also been continuously tested by numerous negative sentiments both domestically and internationally. These include outlook downgrades from Moody’s and Fitch Rating, APBN deficit projections, and most prominently the Iran versus Israel-US war that erupted on 28 February.

IHSG even plunged 4.57% on 4 March 2026 after oil prices surged to breach the US$100 level for the first time since 2022.

Bank Indonesia Interest Rate Decision

Bank Indonesia held its Monetary Policy Board Meeting (RDG) this month on Monday-Tuesday (16-17 March 2026), with the decision results to be announced today, Tuesday (17 March 2026).

Consensus gathered by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions/organisations shows uniform results. All respondents project that BI will maintain the BI Rate at 4.75% in this RDG.

At the last RDG meeting on 18-19 February 2026, BI again decided to maintain the BI Rate at 4.75%, with the Deposit Facility rate at 3.75% and Lending Facility at 5.50%.

This decision means BI has held its benchmark rate five consecutive times through February 2026. Should it be maintained again in March, this step will become the sixth consecutive time.

In this RDG, BI is expected to continue holding the rate as inflation remains under control and the central bank takes a cautious stance amid global uncertainty.