Tending the Nation's Kitchen in a World Without Referees: Ray Dalio, Prabowo Subianto, and the Politics of Survival

I frequently read the writings of Ray Dalio—his thick and measured books, his detached essays, and his recently published lengthy posts on social media platform X.

From these writings, I have learnt one thing: Dalio does not write to entertain; he writes to deconstruct. He does not predict the future; rather, he unveils repeating patterns from the past wearing different masks.

Because of this, the accuracy of his ideas and predictions feels not like coincidence, but rather the consequence of his fidelity in reading history as a cycle—not as a completed heroic narrative.

In his books and writings, Dalio provides direction that extends beyond economics. He discusses civilisation: how nations rise when they can balance power and justice; how they collapse when inequality is left unchecked, legitimacy evaporates, and people feel they live in a system that does not belong to them.

Economics, within Dalio’s framework, is merely a symptom. The true cause is internal order—or its absence.

A recent lengthy essay by Dalio that I read—and which I also shared—states plainly: the world order established after 1945 has collapsed.

The world is entering a phase of great power politics, where international law weakens, global consensus fractures, and power becomes the primary language once again.

In Dalio’s terminology, this is an advanced stage of the Big Cycle: external conflict runs parallel to internal fracture. Nations that fail to manage their own affairs will be swept along, or forced to choose, in contests they did not design.

From this perspective, reading the policy direction of the Prabowo Subianto administration becomes more meaningful when placed as a unified architecture rather than disconnected promises. Many people assess Prabowo through symbols of strength and military power.