Susilo's first year: Striking the right balance

Susilo's first year: Striking the right balance

Michael Vatikiotis, The Straits Times, Asia News Network/Singapore

Measuring progress in Indonesia is hard work. A year into the
administration of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, outwardly
the country seems to be more or less where it was when this
former general swept to power with a huge popular mandate.

There are worries about macro-economic stability based on a
soaring oil price and crippling fuel subsidies; there are fears
about Islamic militancy as radical groups force churches to
close; and there is no real sign that rampant corruption is
abating.

But a year is really too short a period in which to judge
Indonesia's first directly elected President. On closer
inspection some significant changes have been made and, even
better, a more sensible and credible government is at last a
reality in a country that has lived so long at the mercy of
selfish political interests. What is more, the stability and hope
that Susilo brings to Indonesia is helping to restore its
centrality and influence in Southeast Asia.

Susilo's most important achievement over the past year has
been to make democracy a reality. The media is free, the
country's new Parliament is assertive and untrammelled, and local
elections have at last given meaning to local autonomy.

The emergence of a genuine democracy in Southeast Asia's
biggest country, and the world's largest Muslim population, not
only has important implications for the political and economic
landscape of Southeast Asia, but possibly also for the Muslim
world beyond.

Of course, things are still messy. The early stages of
untrammelled political pluralism always are. But assuming that
the trend continues, Indonesia will become, alongside the United
States, India and much of Europe, a dynamic contributor to global
governance. Yes, this will eventually mean a more pronounced
Islamic identity, but the moderate middle ground should stave off
Islamic statehood.

Here are a few things to watch for in the near term. Jakarta
will place more pressure on Yangon for political change. It will
engage in the Middle East peace process. In short, Indonesia will
acquire a more significant international role as the government
seeks to place its hard-won democratic credentials at the heart
of foreign policy.

In economic terms, the end of a long period of political
uncertainty in Indonesia has put Southeast Asia's largest market
and source of primary resources back on the map. The timing could
not have been better.

Indonesia's remarkable turnaround has also relieved
considerable political anxiety about the region. Worries about a
second front in the war on terror were given credence by a series
of terrorist attacks in Indonesia and beyond in the years after
2001. The bombers were recruited from among the poor and
dispossessed. The ringleaders came from religious schools in
central Java. Successive post-Soeharto governments were either
unable or unwilling to tackle the problem.

But now, President Susilo has formally created a counter-
terrorism agency and the courts have also dished out death
penalties to some convicted bombers.

Another major area of concern for the region is the entrenched
culture of corruption, which puts a brake on investment. Susilo
has done something that Indonesian leaders in the past had failed
to do. He has started to crack down on corruption. A former
governor of Aceh is convicted and behind bars and there are
ongoing investigations into the country's election commission, a
Haj pilgrimage fund, among others.

The war on corruption is not a passing fad for this
presidency. Susilo knows that if he falters and backs away from
his pledge to battle corruption he will start to lose popular
support.

'Our anti-corruption drive has teeth and bites deeply. There
are no sacred cows,' Susilo told investors in the U.S. recently.

Presidential aides say that the growing chorus of critics at
home reflects how deeply the President's anti-corruption campaign
is biting. Yet many critics raise valid points that Susilo would
do well to respond to.

The President has struck the right tone at home and abroad
with his blunt and honest demeanour. But while his popularity
ratings remain high, he has demonstrated perhaps too much
caution.

Being slow to condemn the forced closure of churches by
Islamic radicals is a serious blow to confidence in his
government's ability to uphold religious tolerance; the long
delay in hiking domestic fuel prices precipitated a mini
exchange-rate crisis.

Any country that has been through a long and tortured
political transition lasting eight years, accompanied by chronic
economic decay, would be lucky to boast GDP growth in excess of 5
percent. The fact that Indonesia can do so despite being hit by
the devastating tsunami last year is a testament to better
government by any measure.

The writer is a visiting research fellow at the Institute of
South-east Asian Studies. A version of this article was given in
a speech to the American Chamber of Commerce in Singapore on Sept
23.