Susilo's exit may pose risk to Mega in polls: Observers

Susilo's exit may pose risk to Mega in polls: Observers

Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Political observers say Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's decision to
resign his ministerial post may signal the retired Army general
is taking a few steps back to prepare for a big leap that could
derail Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid for another term as
President.

The observers said President Megawati should immediately
assign her other ministers to take over Susilo's duties to ensure
her government remains effective as the country braces for the
elections.

"There are unforeseeable political scenarios if SBY challenges
Megawati in the presidential election. Megawati must work harder
to win the battle," political expert Daniel Sparringa of the
Airlangga University said on Thursday, referring to Susilo by his
initials.

Before Susilo tendered his resignation as coordinating
minister of political and security affairs on Thursday and
disclosed his readiness to run for the presidency, Daniel said,
most people were convinced Megawati would post a comfortable win
over rivals Amien Rais and Akbar Tandjung in the presidential
election.

"SBY has significant popularity and competency. He is also
widely accepted by nationalist or nationalist-religious parties.
He is a tough competitor for Megawati," he said.

Deny J.A. of the Indonesia Survey Institute, which has
conducted several surveys that have shown Susilo is more popular
than Megawati with potential voters, and Ikrar Nusa Bakti of the
Indonesia Institute of Science agreed with Daniel that Susilo
would be a challenge for Megawati.

Deny said Susilo would draw sympathy from voters, which would
boost his popularity, but not enough to undercut the popular
support for Megawati.

"There might be a decline in public support for Megawati, but
it won't be significant. Megawati relies on her traditional
voters," he said.

Susilo also had problems with his previous boss. He was
dismissed from the Cabinet days before president Abdurrahman
Wahid was impeached by the People's Consultative Assembly.

Ikrar predicted Susilo's political star would rise if he was
nominated as a presidential or vice presidential candidate by a
coalition of political parties that controlled a significant
number of seats in the House of Representatives.

Several parties, including the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the
National Mandate Party (PAN) and several of the newer parties,
have publicly said they were considering nominating Susilo as
either their presidential or vice presidential candidate.

"But if he is nominated by the Democrat Party only, forget it.
That party is new and voters in rural areas have hardly heard
about it," he said.

The Democratic Party has already named Susilo as its
presidential candidate if it qualifies to take part in the
presidential election.

Ikrar added that Susilo might also find difficulties in
getting support from the Indonesia Military (TNI), which has
already announced its neutrality in the elections.

Susilo, too, will not be able to rely on the support of former
TNI members and their families, who have been urged to vote for
former military members-turned-politicians, because there are
several political parties that are backed by retired military
officers, he said.

Daniel, Deny and Ikrar all suggested that Megawati make clear
who is taking over Susilo's duties as the country's top security
minister.

"Megawati has lost one of her competent aides. It is a big
loss to her government, but Megawati must appoint other aides to
take over the tasks," Daniel said.

Megawati, who is the presidential nominee of her ruling
Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), will be unable to
take over Susilo's tasks herself because she will be busy
campaigning for reelection across the country, he said.

Vice President Hamzah Haz, who is the presidential nominee of
the United Development Party (PPP), will also be busy during the
election campaign.

"I personally think a coordinating minister has no power
because the minister can only coordinate without implementing
policies. It is not a big deal (losing a coordinating minister).

"Megawati could order the home minister to take over internal
affairs, including security, and the foreign minister to deal
with foreign affairs," Ikrar said.

The country has been without a defense minister since Matori
Abdul Djalil suffered a stroke in August last year. Megawati
declined to appoint an ad interim minister, instead ordering
Susilo to take over Matori's duties.