Susilo's exit may pose risk to Mega in polls: Observers

Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Political observers say Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's decision to resign his ministerial post may signal the retired Army general is taking a few steps back to prepare for a big leap that could derail Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid for another term as President.

The observers said President Megawati should immediately assign her other ministers to take over Susilo's duties to ensure her government remains effective as the country braces for the elections.

"There are unforeseeable political scenarios if SBY challenges Megawati in the presidential election. Megawati must work harder to win the battle," political expert Daniel Sparringa of the Airlangga University said on Thursday, referring to Susilo by his initials.

Before Susilo tendered his resignation as coordinating minister of political and security affairs on Thursday and disclosed his readiness to run for the presidency, Daniel said, most people were convinced Megawati would post a comfortable win over rivals Amien Rais and Akbar Tandjung in the presidential election.

"SBY has significant popularity and competency. He is also widely accepted by nationalist or nationalist-religious parties. He is a tough competitor for Megawati," he said.

Deny J.A. of the Indonesia Survey Institute, which has conducted several surveys that have shown Susilo is more popular than Megawati with potential voters, and Ikrar Nusa Bakti of the Indonesia Institute of Science agreed with Daniel that Susilo would be a challenge for Megawati.

Deny said Susilo would draw sympathy from voters, which would boost his popularity, but not enough to undercut the popular support for Megawati.

"There might be a decline in public support for Megawati, but it won't be significant. Megawati relies on her traditional voters," he said.

Susilo also had problems with his previous boss. He was dismissed from the Cabinet days before president Abdurrahman Wahid was impeached by the People's Consultative Assembly.

Ikrar predicted Susilo's political star would rise if he was nominated as a presidential or vice presidential candidate by a coalition of political parties that controlled a significant number of seats in the House of Representatives.

Several parties, including the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the National Mandate Party (PAN) and several of the newer parties, have publicly said they were considering nominating Susilo as either their presidential or vice presidential candidate.

"But if he is nominated by the Democrat Party only, forget it. That party is new and voters in rural areas have hardly heard about it," he said.

The Democratic Party has already named Susilo as its presidential candidate if it qualifies to take part in the presidential election.

Ikrar added that Susilo might also find difficulties in getting support from the Indonesia Military (TNI), which has already announced its neutrality in the elections.

Susilo, too, will not be able to rely on the support of former TNI members and their families, who have been urged to vote for former military members-turned-politicians, because there are several political parties that are backed by retired military officers, he said.

Daniel, Deny and Ikrar all suggested that Megawati make clear who is taking over Susilo's duties as the country's top security minister.

"Megawati has lost one of her competent aides. It is a big loss to her government, but Megawati must appoint other aides to take over the tasks," Daniel said.

Megawati, who is the presidential nominee of her ruling Indonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), will be unable to take over Susilo's tasks herself because she will be busy campaigning for reelection across the country, he said.

Vice President Hamzah Haz, who is the presidential nominee of the United Development Party (PPP), will also be busy during the election campaign.

"I personally think a coordinating minister has no power because the minister can only coordinate without implementing policies. It is not a big deal (losing a coordinating minister).

"Megawati could order the home minister to take over internal affairs, including security, and the foreign minister to deal with foreign affairs," Ikrar said.

The country has been without a defense minister since Matori Abdul Djalil suffered a stroke in August last year. Megawati declined to appoint an ad interim minister, instead ordering Susilo to take over Matori's duties.