Susilo's exit may pose risk to Mega in polls: Observers<\/p>\n
Muninggar Sri Saraswati, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Political observers say Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's decision to
\nresign his ministerial post may signal the retired Army general
\nis taking a few steps back to prepare for a big leap that could
\nderail Megawati Soekarnoputri's bid for another term as
\nPresident.<\/p>\n
The observers said President Megawati should immediately
\nassign her other ministers to take over Susilo's duties to ensure
\nher government remains effective as the country braces for the
\nelections.<\/p>\n
\"There are unforeseeable political scenarios if SBY challenges
\nMegawati in the presidential election. Megawati must work harder
\nto win the battle,\" political expert Daniel Sparringa of the
\nAirlangga University said on Thursday, referring to Susilo by his
\ninitials.<\/p>\n
Before Susilo tendered his resignation as coordinating
\nminister of political and security affairs on Thursday and
\ndisclosed his readiness to run for the presidency, Daniel said,
\nmost people were convinced Megawati would post a comfortable win
\nover rivals Amien Rais and Akbar Tandjung in the presidential
\nelection.<\/p>\n
\"SBY has significant popularity and competency. He is also
\nwidely accepted by nationalist or nationalist-religious parties.
\nHe is a tough competitor for Megawati,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Deny J.A. of the Indonesia Survey Institute, which has
\nconducted several surveys that have shown Susilo is more popular
\nthan Megawati with potential voters, and Ikrar Nusa Bakti of the
\nIndonesia Institute of Science agreed with Daniel that Susilo
\nwould be a challenge for Megawati.<\/p>\n
Deny said Susilo would draw sympathy from voters, which would
\nboost his popularity, but not enough to undercut the popular
\nsupport for Megawati.<\/p>\n
\"There might be a decline in public support for Megawati, but
\nit won't be significant. Megawati relies on her traditional
\nvoters,\" he said.<\/p>\n
Susilo also had problems with his previous boss. He was
\ndismissed from the Cabinet days before president Abdurrahman
\nWahid was impeached by the People's Consultative Assembly.<\/p>\n
Ikrar predicted Susilo's political star would rise if he was
\nnominated as a presidential or vice presidential candidate by a
\ncoalition of political parties that controlled a significant
\nnumber of seats in the House of Representatives.<\/p>\n
Several parties, including the Crescent Star Party (PBB), the
\nNational Mandate Party (PAN) and several of the newer parties,
\nhave publicly said they were considering nominating Susilo as
\neither their presidential or vice presidential candidate.<\/p>\n
\"But if he is nominated by the Democrat Party only, forget it.
\nThat party is new and voters in rural areas have hardly heard
\nabout it,\" he said.<\/p>\n
The Democratic Party has already named Susilo as its
\npresidential candidate if it qualifies to take part in the
\npresidential election.<\/p>\n
Ikrar added that Susilo might also find difficulties in
\ngetting support from the Indonesia Military (TNI), which has
\nalready announced its neutrality in the elections.<\/p>\n
Susilo, too, will not be able to rely on the support of former
\nTNI members and their families, who have been urged to vote for
\nformer military members-turned-politicians, because there are
\nseveral political parties that are backed by retired military
\nofficers, he said.<\/p>\n
Daniel, Deny and Ikrar all suggested that Megawati make clear
\nwho is taking over Susilo's duties as the country's top security
\nminister.<\/p>\n
\"Megawati has lost one of her competent aides. It is a big
\nloss to her government, but Megawati must appoint other aides to
\ntake over the tasks,\" Daniel said.<\/p>\n
Megawati, who is the presidential nominee of her ruling
\nIndonesia Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), will be unable to
\ntake over Susilo's tasks herself because she will be busy
\ncampaigning for reelection across the country, he said.<\/p>\n
Vice President Hamzah Haz, who is the presidential nominee of
\nthe United Development Party (PPP), will also be busy during the
\nelection campaign.<\/p>\n
\"I personally think a coordinating minister has no power
\nbecause the minister can only coordinate without implementing
\npolicies. It is not a big deal (losing a coordinating minister).<\/p>\n
\"Megawati could order the home minister to take over internal
\naffairs, including security, and the foreign minister to deal
\nwith foreign affairs,\" Ikrar said.<\/p>\n
The country has been without a defense minister since Matori
\nAbdul Djalil suffered a stroke in August last year. Megawati
\ndeclined to appoint an ad interim minister, instead ordering
\nSusilo to take over Matori's duties.<\/p>",
"url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/susilos-exit-may-pose-risk-to-mega-in-polls-observers-1447893297",
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"sponsor": "Okusi Associates",
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