Susilo now bracing for uphill runoff
Susilo now bracing for uphill runoff
Fabiola Desy Unidjaja and M.Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Senior party executives and campaign managers for Susilo
Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Wiranto began
wrestling on Wednesday with coalition building for the expected
Sept. 20 runoff.
Ranked outsiders from the start, supporters of Hamzah Haz on
Wednesday conceded defeat and started the more tenable prospect
of looking for a coalition to support.
Emron Pangkapi, deputy secretary-general of the United
Development Party (PPP) central board, acknowledged that at best
Hamzah would win 5 percent of the total vote.
There is no such doubt of Susilo's place in the final round.
The much publicized NDI-LP3ES quick count, and more recently a
survey by the Indonesian Rectors' Forum found the retired general
well ahead with about 33.2 percent to 36.2 percent of the vote
followed by Megawati and Wiranto a distant third.
Despite the close race for second, both the Megawati and
Wiranto camp remained confident of sneaking past the other.
Golkar Party executive Bomer Pasaribu suggested that the
party's own findings suggest that the difference between second
and third place would be no more than 5 percent.
He said Golkar's candidate, Wiranto, did well in eastern
Indonesia and in certain areas in Java. "Apart from South
Sulawesi which was split with Susilo-Kalla, we dominated (eastern
Indonesia)," Bomer added.
With the election results inching toward a conclusion, the
likely political permutations of possible coalitions are becoming
increasingly vivid.
In the minds of many, Susilo, despite the momentum of a first-
round victory, could be facing a combined offensive from the
country's strongest political organizations.
Entjeng Sobirin of LP3ES research center astutely described
Susilo's coming uphill battle. "He has to develop a new strategy
because he simply doesn't have the political machinery to
compete," Entjeng said here on Wednesday.
But Sofyan Djalil of the Democratic Party has ruled out Susilo
building a "grand coalition", saying any alliance will "not
comprise of many big elements".
Sofyan even conceded that the consequent Susilo government
built on a small coalition was ready to "face strong opposition
from the DPR (House of Representatives)".
Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
(PDI-P) are the two largest factions in the House with 129 and
109 seats respectively.
He added that any coalition formed by Susilo and the
Democratic Party would simply be aimed at boosting their expected
returns of 35 percent from the first round.
Bomer separately remarked that in the event of a Wiranto
defeat, a coalition with Megawati's PDI-P was one of scenarios
being looked at, and vice versa.
"But of course we would have to look at how Gus Dur
(Abdurrahman Wahid) stands on the issue of endorsing Megawati,"
Bomer added.
Political analysts Syamsuddin Haris and Daniel Sparringa were
also of the opinion that Susilo would be facing a major coalition
that combined the forces of heavyweights Golkar and PDI-P.
Syamsuddin even added that apart from Golkar Party chief Akbar
Tandjung, presidential candidate Amien Rais would likely sway
toward Megawati.
"Negotiations with Megawati are likely to be more amiable than
Susilo who from the start has tended to ward off other parties,"
he said.
Daniel slightly differed in which way Amien would sway,
suggesting instead that the National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman
would choose to abstain. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), in
his estimation, would opt for Susilo.
"Either way Susilo faces a difficult prospect. The second
placed candidate is usually always easier to negotiate with," he
added.
Despite the politicking by party elite, Daniel, nevertheless,
warned that voters in the end could still buck the trend of
established political deals.
As the legislative and presidential elections are showing,
Indonesian voters are gradually moving away from traditional
ethnic lines, rendering preconceived political allegiances
obsolete.