Susilo now bracing for uphill runoff
Fabiola Desy Unidjaja and M.Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta
Senior party executives and campaign managers for Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Wiranto began wrestling on Wednesday with coalition building for the expected Sept. 20 runoff.
Ranked outsiders from the start, supporters of Hamzah Haz on Wednesday conceded defeat and started the more tenable prospect of looking for a coalition to support.
Emron Pangkapi, deputy secretary-general of the United Development Party (PPP) central board, acknowledged that at best Hamzah would win 5 percent of the total vote.
There is no such doubt of Susilo's place in the final round. The much publicized NDI-LP3ES quick count, and more recently a survey by the Indonesian Rectors' Forum found the retired general well ahead with about 33.2 percent to 36.2 percent of the vote followed by Megawati and Wiranto a distant third.
Despite the close race for second, both the Megawati and Wiranto camp remained confident of sneaking past the other.
Golkar Party executive Bomer Pasaribu suggested that the party's own findings suggest that the difference between second and third place would be no more than 5 percent.
He said Golkar's candidate, Wiranto, did well in eastern Indonesia and in certain areas in Java. "Apart from South Sulawesi which was split with Susilo-Kalla, we dominated (eastern Indonesia)," Bomer added.
With the election results inching toward a conclusion, the likely political permutations of possible coalitions are becoming increasingly vivid.
In the minds of many, Susilo, despite the momentum of a first- round victory, could be facing a combined offensive from the country's strongest political organizations.
Entjeng Sobirin of LP3ES research center astutely described Susilo's coming uphill battle. "He has to develop a new strategy because he simply doesn't have the political machinery to compete," Entjeng said here on Wednesday.
But Sofyan Djalil of the Democratic Party has ruled out Susilo building a "grand coalition", saying any alliance will "not comprise of many big elements".
Sofyan even conceded that the consequent Susilo government built on a small coalition was ready to "face strong opposition from the DPR (House of Representatives)".
Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) are the two largest factions in the House with 129 and 109 seats respectively.
He added that any coalition formed by Susilo and the Democratic Party would simply be aimed at boosting their expected returns of 35 percent from the first round.
Bomer separately remarked that in the event of a Wiranto defeat, a coalition with Megawati's PDI-P was one of scenarios being looked at, and vice versa.
"But of course we would have to look at how Gus Dur (Abdurrahman Wahid) stands on the issue of endorsing Megawati," Bomer added.
Political analysts Syamsuddin Haris and Daniel Sparringa were also of the opinion that Susilo would be facing a major coalition that combined the forces of heavyweights Golkar and PDI-P.
Syamsuddin even added that apart from Golkar Party chief Akbar Tandjung, presidential candidate Amien Rais would likely sway toward Megawati.
"Negotiations with Megawati are likely to be more amiable than Susilo who from the start has tended to ward off other parties," he said.
Daniel slightly differed in which way Amien would sway, suggesting instead that the National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman would choose to abstain. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), in his estimation, would opt for Susilo.
"Either way Susilo faces a difficult prospect. The second placed candidate is usually always easier to negotiate with," he added.
Despite the politicking by party elite, Daniel, nevertheless, warned that voters in the end could still buck the trend of established political deals.
As the legislative and presidential elections are showing, Indonesian voters are gradually moving away from traditional ethnic lines, rendering preconceived political allegiances obsolete.