Susilo now bracing for uphill runoff<\/p>\n
Fabiola Desy Unidjaja and M.Taufiqurrahman, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Senior party executives and campaign managers for Susilo
\nBambang Yudhoyono, Megawati Soekarnoputri and Wiranto began
\nwrestling on Wednesday with coalition building for the expected
\nSept. 20 runoff.<\/p>\n
Ranked outsiders from the start, supporters of Hamzah Haz on
\nWednesday conceded defeat and started the more tenable prospect
\nof looking for a coalition to support.<\/p>\n
Emron Pangkapi, deputy secretary-general of the United
\nDevelopment Party (PPP) central board, acknowledged that at best
\nHamzah would win 5 percent of the total vote.<\/p>\n
There is no such doubt of Susilo's place in the final round.
\nThe much publicized NDI-LP3ES quick count, and more recently a
\nsurvey by the Indonesian Rectors' Forum found the retired general
\nwell ahead with about 33.2 percent to 36.2 percent of the vote
\nfollowed by Megawati and Wiranto a distant third.<\/p>\n
Despite the close race for second, both the Megawati and
\nWiranto camp remained confident of sneaking past the other.<\/p>\n
Golkar Party executive Bomer Pasaribu suggested that the
\nparty's own findings suggest that the difference between second
\nand third place would be no more than 5 percent.<\/p>\n
He said Golkar's candidate, Wiranto, did well in eastern
\nIndonesia and in certain areas in Java. \"Apart from South
\nSulawesi which was split with Susilo-Kalla, we dominated (eastern
\nIndonesia),\" Bomer added.<\/p>\n
With the election results inching toward a conclusion, the
\nlikely political permutations of possible coalitions are becoming
\nincreasingly vivid.<\/p>\n
In the minds of many, Susilo, despite the momentum of a first-
\nround victory, could be facing a combined offensive from the
\ncountry's strongest political organizations.<\/p>\n
Entjeng Sobirin of LP3ES research center astutely described
\nSusilo's coming uphill battle. \"He has to develop a new strategy
\nbecause he simply doesn't have the political machinery to
\ncompete,\" Entjeng said here on Wednesday.<\/p>\n
But Sofyan Djalil of the Democratic Party has ruled out Susilo
\nbuilding a \"grand coalition\", saying any alliance will \"not
\ncomprise of many big elements\".<\/p>\n
Sofyan even conceded that the consequent Susilo government
\nbuilt on a small coalition was ready to \"face strong opposition
\nfrom the DPR (House of Representatives)\".<\/p>\n
Golkar Party and the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle
\n(PDI-P) are the two largest factions in the House with 129 and
\n109 seats respectively.<\/p>\n
He added that any coalition formed by Susilo and the
\nDemocratic Party would simply be aimed at boosting their expected
\nreturns of 35 percent from the first round.<\/p>\n
Bomer separately remarked that in the event of a Wiranto
\ndefeat, a coalition with Megawati's PDI-P was one of scenarios
\nbeing looked at, and vice versa.<\/p>\n
\"But of course we would have to look at how Gus Dur
\n(Abdurrahman Wahid) stands on the issue of endorsing Megawati,\"
\nBomer added.<\/p>\n
Political analysts Syamsuddin Haris and Daniel Sparringa were
\nalso of the opinion that Susilo would be facing a major coalition
\nthat combined the forces of heavyweights Golkar and PDI-P.<\/p>\n
Syamsuddin even added that apart from Golkar Party chief Akbar
\nTandjung, presidential candidate Amien Rais would likely sway
\ntoward Megawati.<\/p>\n
\"Negotiations with Megawati are likely to be more amiable than
\nSusilo who from the start has tended to ward off other parties,\"
\nhe said.<\/p>\n
Daniel slightly differed in which way Amien would sway,
\nsuggesting instead that the National Mandate Party (PAN) chairman
\nwould choose to abstain. The Prosperous Justice Party (PKS), in
\nhis estimation, would opt for Susilo.<\/p>\n
\"Either way Susilo faces a difficult prospect. The second
\nplaced candidate is usually always easier to negotiate with,\" he
\nadded.<\/p>\n
Despite the politicking by party elite, Daniel, nevertheless,
\nwarned that voters in the end could still buck the trend of
\nestablished political deals.<\/p>\n
As the legislative and presidential elections are showing,
\nIndonesian voters are gradually moving away from traditional
\nethnic lines, rendering preconceived political allegiances
\nobsolete.<\/p>",
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