Susilo, Megawati: Too close to call a winner

Wimar Witoelar, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Less than a month before the final round of the presidential election, we still cannot be confident in predicting the outcome. Polls say one thing, pundits say another, but the tools of prediction are uncertain.

It would help to predict the outcome if we were fully cognizant of the major differences between the two candidates and their different voter appeals, but this is not easy. Susilo and Megawati project obvious differences, but this is a misleading impression.

Susilo started on his dramatic rise to popularity based on the image of the underdog. But now he is the front-runner, and he has trouble maintaining his lead. Megawati was, for three years, a frustrating icon of silence and remoteness. Susilo is not saying much either now, except for customary speech and rehearsed gestures.

The two candidates are similar in their self-righteousness and dislike of criticism; both are uncomfortable with the media and both operate behind inscrutable facades.

When they were both in the government of Abdurrahman "Gus Dur" Wahid and not competing as they are now, the two presented similar political behavior: Both are conservative and non- committal, both are moderators rather than leaders.

With these similarities and narrow differences, the salient question is, from where do their support groups come?

Sadly, their support base have not evolved in a convincing way. Susilo is presented by his supporters as representing change after the Megawati status quo, but people now realize that Megawati and her people have been in power for only three years, while Susilo was part of the 30-year reign of Soeharto. Further, Soeharto's New Order types are at the core of Susilo's network.

Susilo is portrayed as disciplined, but this has come to mean lack of imagination, in much the same way that Megawati is seen as being incapable of innovation. Susilo is a military career man trying hard to be a civilian, but his cultural training makes him unable to really break out and generate reform.

Megawati's support base is equally uninspiring. Megawati is backed -- curiously -- by known reform figures, but they have flocked mostly to position themselves against a potential New Order renaissance under Susilo. They say Megawati might again be disappointing, but at least it will not last more than five more years. In the case of Susilo, there is a concern that he might set the stage for a New Order comeback, albeit with modifications.

It is curious that neither has managed to distance themselves from the New Order, and they seem to have given up trying. The three political parties of the New Order system are part of the coalition for Megawati, while the individuals who used to mill around the Soeharto regime are now campaigning, speaking and playing golf with Susilo. Both candidates are quite friendly with those known to have benefited from New Order corruption, while the anticorruption forces are not aligned to any one camp.

In this time of weak party discipline, the effectiveness of any coalition party is doubtful. A few days ago, this paper carried the headline Mutiny in the ranks as Golkar, PPP fall for Mega's charms, which claimed further that "The leaders of the Golkar Party and Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) are now facing internal revolts by members who oppose their decisions to back Megawati Soekarnoputri in the election runoff in September".

The Megawati camp is playing up the coalition to increase their appeal to intelligent voters. PDI-P deputy secretary Pramono Anung Wibowo said the coalition had accepted certain guidelines for power-sharing and as a result, legislation and education portfolios would be given to professionals rather than politicians.

Meanwhile, Megawati and former president Gus Dur attended on Friday a Hindu Agni Hotra mass prayer at the Asram Gandhi Puri Swagram in Klungkung regency, evoking the religious pluralism Megawati used to ignore.

Susilo, on the other hand, is trying an American-style meet- the-people campaign by attending Friday prayer with the people, taking part in sack races and tug-of-war in Independence Day celebrations -- while looking neat and protected by aides. Meanwhile, running mate Jusuf Kalla traveled to Semarang, Central Java, to attend the Indonesian National Youth Committee's national meeting.

Susilo has dismissed the Megawati coalition as elite politics and got into a bit of trouble when he equated it to an "oligarchy". Susilo's people proclaim they are going straight to the voters, inviting questions as to his dismissal of political parties that should be the essential base of a democracy.

Actually, it might have been a simple case of sour grapes. The fact is that Susilo is turning his eyes to other influential parties. With Kalla, Susilo has held a closed-door working breakfast with members of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and has made some contact with PAN and other minor parties. If the coalition Susilo is trying to gather quietly becomes a reality, he could gain the support of 118 House members from the Democratic Party, the PKS, PAN and the PKB.

The big gaping hole in the nation's scenario for democracy comes from the absence of news from civil society. While the media has dwelled on Megawati's coalition and Susilo's reaction, movement from independent groups is minimal, although one would have expected these to have been strengthened by politicians eliminated in July. Yet, the losers of the first round are trying to get into the new power structure rather than creating an opposition.

The nation would be well served if a third coalition sprang to life, one that could bring together groups that do not support one candidate over the other. Such an opposition group would be useful, because the true dynamics of the next five years will not be between Susilo and Megawati, but between the next President and a more mature democratic society.

The writer is a founder of InterMatrix Communications and is Adjunct Professor of Journalism and Public Relations at Deakin University, Australia. He can be reached at wimar@perspektif.net.