Susilo, Megawati: Too close to call a winner

Susilo, Megawati: Too close to call a winner

Wimar Witoelar, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta

Less than a month before the final round of the presidential
election, we still cannot be confident in predicting the outcome.
Polls say one thing, pundits say another, but the tools of
prediction are uncertain.

It would help to predict the outcome if we were fully
cognizant of the major differences between the two candidates and
their different voter appeals, but this is not easy. Susilo and
Megawati project obvious differences, but this is a misleading
impression.

Susilo started on his dramatic rise to popularity based on the
image of the underdog. But now he is the front-runner, and he has
trouble maintaining his lead. Megawati was, for three years, a
frustrating icon of silence and remoteness. Susilo is not saying
much either now, except for customary speech and rehearsed
gestures.

The two candidates are similar in their self-righteousness and
dislike of criticism; both are uncomfortable with the media and
both operate behind inscrutable facades.

When they were both in the government of Abdurrahman "Gus Dur"
Wahid and not competing as they are now, the two presented
similar political behavior: Both are conservative and non-
committal, both are moderators rather than leaders.

With these similarities and narrow differences, the salient
question is, from where do their support groups come?

Sadly, their support base have not evolved in a convincing
way. Susilo is presented by his supporters as representing change
after the Megawati status quo, but people now realize that
Megawati and her people have been in power for only three years,
while Susilo was part of the 30-year reign of Soeharto. Further,
Soeharto's New Order types are at the core of Susilo's network.

Susilo is portrayed as disciplined, but this has come to mean
lack of imagination, in much the same way that Megawati is seen
as being incapable of innovation. Susilo is a military career man
trying hard to be a civilian, but his cultural training makes him
unable to really break out and generate reform.

Megawati's support base is equally uninspiring. Megawati is
backed -- curiously -- by known reform figures, but they have
flocked mostly to position themselves against a potential New
Order renaissance under Susilo. They say Megawati might again be
disappointing, but at least it will not last more than five more
years. In the case of Susilo, there is a concern that he might
set the stage for a New Order comeback, albeit with
modifications.

It is curious that neither has managed to distance themselves
from the New Order, and they seem to have given up trying. The
three political parties of the New Order system are part of the
coalition for Megawati, while the individuals who used to mill
around the Soeharto regime are now campaigning, speaking and
playing golf with Susilo. Both candidates are quite friendly with
those known to have benefited from New Order corruption, while
the anticorruption forces are not aligned to any one camp.

In this time of weak party discipline, the effectiveness of
any coalition party is doubtful. A few days ago, this paper
carried the headline Mutiny in the ranks as Golkar, PPP fall for
Mega's charms, which claimed further that "The leaders of the
Golkar Party and Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) are
now facing internal revolts by members who oppose their decisions
to back Megawati Soekarnoputri in the election runoff in
September".

The Megawati camp is playing up the coalition to increase
their appeal to intelligent voters. PDI-P deputy secretary
Pramono Anung Wibowo said the coalition had accepted certain
guidelines for power-sharing and as a result, legislation and
education portfolios would be given to professionals rather than
politicians.

Meanwhile, Megawati and former president Gus Dur attended on
Friday a Hindu Agni Hotra mass prayer at the Asram Gandhi Puri
Swagram in Klungkung regency, evoking the religious pluralism
Megawati used to ignore.

Susilo, on the other hand, is trying an American-style meet-
the-people campaign by attending Friday prayer with the people,
taking part in sack races and tug-of-war in Independence Day
celebrations -- while looking neat and protected by aides.
Meanwhile, running mate Jusuf Kalla traveled to Semarang, Central
Java, to attend the Indonesian National Youth Committee's
national meeting.

Susilo has dismissed the Megawati coalition as elite politics
and got into a bit of trouble when he equated it to an
"oligarchy". Susilo's people proclaim they are going straight to
the voters, inviting questions as to his dismissal of political
parties that should be the essential base of a democracy.

Actually, it might have been a simple case of sour grapes. The
fact is that Susilo is turning his eyes to other influential
parties. With Kalla, Susilo has held a closed-door working
breakfast with members of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and
has made some contact with PAN and other minor parties. If the
coalition Susilo is trying to gather quietly becomes a reality,
he could gain the support of 118 House members from the
Democratic Party, the PKS, PAN and the PKB.

The big gaping hole in the nation's scenario for democracy
comes from the absence of news from civil society. While the
media has dwelled on Megawati's coalition and Susilo's reaction,
movement from independent groups is minimal, although one would
have expected these to have been strengthened by politicians
eliminated in July. Yet, the losers of the first round are trying
to get into the new power structure rather than creating an
opposition.

The nation would be well served if a third coalition sprang to
life, one that could bring together groups that do not support
one candidate over the other. Such an opposition group would be
useful, because the true dynamics of the next five years will not
be between Susilo and Megawati, but between the next President
and a more mature democratic society.

The writer is a founder of InterMatrix Communications and is
Adjunct Professor of Journalism and Public Relations at Deakin
University, Australia. He can be reached at wimar@perspektif.net.