Susilo, Megawati: Too close to call a winner<\/p>\n
Wimar Witoelar, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta<\/p>\n
Less than a month before the final round of the presidential
\nelection, we still cannot be confident in predicting the outcome.
\nPolls say one thing, pundits say another, but the tools of
\nprediction are uncertain.<\/p>\n
It would help to predict the outcome if we were fully
\ncognizant of the major differences between the two candidates and
\ntheir different voter appeals, but this is not easy. Susilo and
\nMegawati project obvious differences, but this is a misleading
\nimpression.<\/p>\n
Susilo started on his dramatic rise to popularity based on the
\nimage of the underdog. But now he is the front-runner, and he has
\ntrouble maintaining his lead. Megawati was, for three years, a
\nfrustrating icon of silence and remoteness. Susilo is not saying
\nmuch either now, except for customary speech and rehearsed
\ngestures.<\/p>\n
The two candidates are similar in their self-righteousness and
\ndislike of criticism; both are uncomfortable with the media and
\nboth operate behind inscrutable facades.<\/p>\n
When they were both in the government of Abdurrahman \"Gus Dur\"
\nWahid and not competing as they are now, the two presented
\nsimilar political behavior: Both are conservative and non-
\ncommittal, both are moderators rather than leaders.<\/p>\n
With these similarities and narrow differences, the salient
\nquestion is, from where do their support groups come?<\/p>\n
Sadly, their support base have not evolved in a convincing
\nway. Susilo is presented by his supporters as representing change
\nafter the Megawati status quo, but people now realize that
\nMegawati and her people have been in power for only three years,
\nwhile Susilo was part of the 30-year reign of Soeharto. Further,
\nSoeharto's New Order types are at the core of Susilo's network.<\/p>\n
Susilo is portrayed as disciplined, but this has come to mean
\nlack of imagination, in much the same way that Megawati is seen
\nas being incapable of innovation. Susilo is a military career man
\ntrying hard to be a civilian, but his cultural training makes him
\nunable to really break out and generate reform.<\/p>\n
Megawati's support base is equally uninspiring. Megawati is
\nbacked -- curiously -- by known reform figures, but they have
\nflocked mostly to position themselves against a potential New
\nOrder renaissance under Susilo. They say Megawati might again be
\ndisappointing, but at least it will not last more than five more
\nyears. In the case of Susilo, there is a concern that he might
\nset the stage for a New Order comeback, albeit with
\nmodifications.<\/p>\n
It is curious that neither has managed to distance themselves
\nfrom the New Order, and they seem to have given up trying. The
\nthree political parties of the New Order system are part of the
\ncoalition for Megawati, while the individuals who used to mill
\naround the Soeharto regime are now campaigning, speaking and
\nplaying golf with Susilo. Both candidates are quite friendly with
\nthose known to have benefited from New Order corruption, while
\nthe anticorruption forces are not aligned to any one camp.<\/p>\n
In this time of weak party discipline, the effectiveness of
\nany coalition party is doubtful. A few days ago, this paper
\ncarried the headline Mutiny in the ranks as Golkar, PPP fall for
\nMega's charms, which claimed further that \"The leaders of the
\nGolkar Party and Muslim-based United Development Party (PPP) are
\nnow facing internal revolts by members who oppose their decisions
\nto back Megawati Soekarnoputri in the election runoff in
\nSeptember\".<\/p>\n
The Megawati camp is playing up the coalition to increase
\ntheir appeal to intelligent voters. PDI-P deputy secretary
\nPramono Anung Wibowo said the coalition had accepted certain
\nguidelines for power-sharing and as a result, legislation and
\neducation portfolios would be given to professionals rather than
\npoliticians.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, Megawati and former president Gus Dur attended on
\nFriday a Hindu Agni Hotra mass prayer at the Asram Gandhi Puri
\nSwagram in Klungkung regency, evoking the religious pluralism
\nMegawati used to ignore.<\/p>\n
Susilo, on the other hand, is trying an American-style meet-
\nthe-people campaign by attending Friday prayer with the people,
\ntaking part in sack races and tug-of-war in Independence Day
\ncelebrations -- while looking neat and protected by aides.
\nMeanwhile, running mate Jusuf Kalla traveled to Semarang, Central
\nJava, to attend the Indonesian National Youth Committee's
\nnational meeting.<\/p>\n
Susilo has dismissed the Megawati coalition as elite politics
\nand got into a bit of trouble when he equated it to an
\n\"oligarchy\". Susilo's people proclaim they are going straight to
\nthe voters, inviting questions as to his dismissal of political
\nparties that should be the essential base of a democracy.<\/p>\n
Actually, it might have been a simple case of sour grapes. The
\nfact is that Susilo is turning his eyes to other influential
\nparties. With Kalla, Susilo has held a closed-door working
\nbreakfast with members of the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) and
\nhas made some contact with PAN and other minor parties. If the
\ncoalition Susilo is trying to gather quietly becomes a reality,
\nhe could gain the support of 118 House members from the
\nDemocratic Party, the PKS, PAN and the PKB.<\/p>\n
The big gaping hole in the nation's scenario for democracy
\ncomes from the absence of news from civil society. While the
\nmedia has dwelled on Megawati's coalition and Susilo's reaction,
\nmovement from independent groups is minimal, although one would
\nhave expected these to have been strengthened by politicians
\neliminated in July. Yet, the losers of the first round are trying
\nto get into the new power structure rather than creating an
\nopposition.<\/p>\n
The nation would be well served if a third coalition sprang to
\nlife, one that could bring together groups that do not support
\none candidate over the other. Such an opposition group would be
\nuseful, because the true dynamics of the next five years will not
\nbe between Susilo and Megawati, but between the next President
\nand a more mature democratic society.<\/p>\n
The writer is a founder of InterMatrix Communications and is
\nAdjunct Professor of Journalism and Public Relations at Deakin
\nUniversity, Australia. He can be reached at wimar@perspektif.net.<\/p>",
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