Surpassing Rp 17,100 Level, CORE Indonesia Predicts Rupiah's Fate Until Year-End
JAKARTA - The rupiah exchange rate is expected to remain under pressure as long as the conflict in the Middle East has not subsided. The pressure intensified after ceasefire negotiations failed.
Trading on Monday (13/4/2026) recorded the rupiah breaching Rp 17,100 per US dollar. That position held steady until Tuesday (14/4/2026).
Executive Director of the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), Mohammad Faisal, assessed that the weakening was triggered by the deteriorating geopolitical situation. Market sentiment shifted rapidly after the agreement’s failure.
“In my view, the pressure on exchange rates, including the rupiah, will indeed remain high at present,” he stated when met at the Mandarin Oriental Hotel in Jakarta on Monday.
On 7 April, signals of negotiation had once pushed oil prices down from around US$110 to US$91 per barrel. That condition also eased pressure on the rupiah.
The situation reversed after the agreement was not reached on Sunday (12/4/2026). Pressure re-emerged in global markets.
“So, sentiment factors can change conditions by 180 degrees in a short time. On 7 April, it was positive; now, due to the failure, it has turned negative. Meaning, logically, pressure on the exchange rate will occur,” he said.
The pressure is expected to persist in the near term. The emerging pattern is typically strong pressure at the start, then easing with monetary authority interventions.
Faisal assessed that domestic economic fundamentals remain sufficiently strong. Foreign reserves, interest rates, and macroeconomic stability serve as supports.
The Rp 17,000 level now serves as a new psychological threshold. Bank Indonesia is expected to guard that boundary until year-end.
“So, moving forward, the pressure will still persist. But I think the condition will not exceed Rp 17,000, considering the fundamentals,” he explained.
“(The Rp 17,000 level) is the new psychological threshold. It will be defended to the death at that point,” he added.