Super El Niño Looms, Not Just Heat but Also Thinning Wallets
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia — The world faces the threat of an El Niño phenomenon in the coming months, with a 62% chance by mid-2026. Several climate agencies even warn of the potential strengthening towards a “super El Niño” that could trigger a surge in global temperatures, extreme weather, and pressure on food and energy prices.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) notes a 62% chance of El Niño emergence during the June to August period.
More concerning, there is about a one-third possibility that this phenomenon will strengthen significantly by year’s end.
Reuters reports that most major meteorological agencies now predict a strong El Niño phase beginning to form in May 2026.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states that current climate models are aligning and provide high confidence that El Niño will emerge and then strengthen in the coming months. Sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean have even exceeded 21 degrees Celsius, one of the highest levels since recordings began in the 1980s.
As the air gets hotter, electricity consumption surges because air conditioners run longer. Asia is the most critical hotspot, as the region absorbs about 53% of global electricity needs, according to the energy agency Ember.
The problem is that Asia’s power generation is still reliant on coal. Reuters notes that coal-based plants supply about 70% of electricity in India and 55% in China. Regionally, the proportion remains dominant. Thus, when temperatures rise and air conditioners switch on en masse, coal demand could also be driven up.
As the world’s largest coal exporter, Indonesia stands to benefit from increased demand from Asia. Throughout 2026, Indonesia’s coal exports to Asian countries fell by around 7% compared to the same period last year.
The cause was a combination of rising clean energy and weak industrial consumption, such as cement. However, if El Niño brings a prolonged hot season, that trend could quickly reverse.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, warnings have already been issued by the National Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), which released predictions of extreme weather, popularly termed the Godzilla El Niño, potentially hitting Indonesia during this year’s dry season.
In response, agricultural observer from the Center of Reform on Economics (CORE), Eliza Mardian, cautioned to be alert to the impacts that could arise from this climate phenomenon, namely the potential rise in rice prices due to threats of domestic production disruptions.
Because, she added, Indonesia’s agricultural structure is still vulnerable to climate change, especially drought.
“Our agricultural structure is still highly dependent on rainfall, with many rain-fed rice fields, and the irrigation system is not yet fully able to anticipate large-scale droughts,” Eliza told CNBC Indonesia, quoted Saturday (2/5/2026).
Nevertheless, projections from various agencies remain varied. The Meteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) holds a different view. Current conditions actually give only a 15%-20% chance of reaching super strong levels, or so-called Godzilla. Based on current calculations, the highest probability is only up to moderate levels.
If the super El Niño scenario occurs, the world could face major climate pressures again, even potentially surpassing the 2023-2024 episode, which was recorded as one of the hottest conditions in history.
What is “Super El Niño” and Why is it Dangerous?
Super El Niño is an extreme condition of the El Niño phenomenon, when sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise far above normal for a sufficiently long period.
This phenomenon has the potential to push the Earth’s average temperature to unprecedented levels. In the context of already warming climate change, the presence of super El Niño could serve as an “additional trigger” that exacerbates the situation.
This means that if super El Niño occurs, severe droughts and floods could happen in various regions at the same time.
The impacts could be deeply felt, especially in the agricultural sector. The risk of crop failure and livestock deaths rising higher could lead to shortages of commodities that impact food price surges.
High Uncertainty, Real Risks Remain
Although various weather models are increasingly pointing towards the emergence of El Niño, forecasters are not yet fully agreed on how strong this phenomenon will develop.
AccuWeather estimates the chance of super El Niño at around 15% until the end of the storm season in November. Meanwhile, NOAA assesses the chance of a strong El Niño at about 33% during October to December, but with a high level of uncertainty.
This means the worst-case scenario may not be certain, but the risk is substantial enough to be wary of.