Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia \u2014 The world faces the threat of an El Ni\u00f1o\nphenomenon in the coming months, with a 62% chance by mid-2026. Several\nclimate agencies even warn of the potential strengthening towards a\n\u201csuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d that could trigger a surge in global temperatures,\nextreme weather, and pressure on food and energy prices.<\/p>\n
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) notes a\n62% chance of El Ni\u00f1o emergence during the June to August period.<\/p>\n
More concerning, there is about a one-third possibility that this\nphenomenon will strengthen significantly by year\u2019s end.<\/p>\n
Reuters reports that most major meteorological agencies now predict a\nstrong El Ni\u00f1o phase beginning to form in May 2026.<\/p>\n
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) states that current\nclimate models are aligning and provide high confidence that El Ni\u00f1o\nwill emerge and then strengthen in the coming months. Sea surface\ntemperatures in the Pacific Ocean have even exceeded 21 degrees Celsius,\none of the highest levels since recordings began in the 1980s.<\/p>\n
As the air gets hotter, electricity consumption surges because air\nconditioners run longer. Asia is the most critical hotspot, as the\nregion absorbs about 53% of global electricity needs, according to the\nenergy agency Ember.<\/p>\n
The problem is that Asia\u2019s power generation is still reliant on coal.\nReuters notes that coal-based plants supply about 70% of electricity in\nIndia and 55% in China. Regionally, the proportion remains dominant.\nThus, when temperatures rise and air conditioners switch on en masse,\ncoal demand could also be driven up.<\/p>\n
As the world\u2019s largest coal exporter, Indonesia stands to benefit\nfrom increased demand from Asia. Throughout 2026, Indonesia\u2019s coal\nexports to Asian countries fell by around 7% compared to the same period\nlast year.<\/p>\n
The cause was a combination of rising clean energy and weak\nindustrial consumption, such as cement. However, if El Ni\u00f1o brings a\nprolonged hot season, that trend could quickly reverse.<\/p>\n
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, warnings have already been issued by the\nNational Research and Innovation Agency (BRIN), which released\npredictions of extreme weather, popularly termed the Godzilla El Ni\u00f1o,\npotentially hitting Indonesia during this year\u2019s dry season.<\/p>\n
In response, agricultural observer from the Center of Reform on\nEconomics (CORE), Eliza Mardian, cautioned to be alert to the impacts\nthat could arise from this climate phenomenon, namely the potential rise\nin rice prices due to threats of domestic production disruptions.<\/p>\n
Because, she added, Indonesia\u2019s agricultural structure is still\nvulnerable to climate change, especially drought.<\/p>\n
\u201cOur agricultural structure is still highly dependent on rainfall,\nwith many rain-fed rice fields, and the irrigation system is not yet\nfully able to anticipate large-scale droughts,\u201d Eliza told CNBC\nIndonesia, quoted Saturday (2\/5\/2026).<\/p>\n
Nevertheless, projections from various agencies remain varied. The\nMeteorology, Climatology, and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) holds a different\nview. Current conditions actually give only a 15%-20% chance of reaching\nsuper strong levels, or so-called Godzilla. Based on current\ncalculations, the highest probability is only up to moderate levels.<\/p>\n
If the super El Ni\u00f1o scenario occurs, the world could face major\nclimate pressures again, even potentially surpassing the 2023-2024\nepisode, which was recorded as one of the hottest conditions in\nhistory.<\/p>\n
What is \u201cSuper El Ni\u00f1o\u201d and Why is it Dangerous?<\/p>\n
Super El Ni\u00f1o is an extreme condition of the El Ni\u00f1o phenomenon, when\nsea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean rise far above normal for\na sufficiently long period.<\/p>\n
This phenomenon has the potential to push the Earth\u2019s average\ntemperature to unprecedented levels. In the context of already warming\nclimate change, the presence of super El Ni\u00f1o could serve as an\n\u201cadditional trigger\u201d that exacerbates the situation.<\/p>\n
This means that if super El Ni\u00f1o occurs, severe droughts and floods\ncould happen in various regions at the same time.<\/p>\n
The impacts could be deeply felt, especially in the agricultural\nsector. The risk of crop failure and livestock deaths rising higher\ncould lead to shortages of commodities that impact food price\nsurges.<\/p>\n
High Uncertainty, Real Risks Remain<\/p>\n
Although various weather models are increasingly pointing towards the\nemergence of El Ni\u00f1o, forecasters are not yet fully agreed on how strong\nthis phenomenon will develop.<\/p>\n
AccuWeather estimates the chance of super El Ni\u00f1o at around 15% until\nthe end of the storm season in November. Meanwhile, NOAA assesses the\nchance of a strong El Ni\u00f1o at about 33% during October to December, but\nwith a high level of uncertainty.<\/p>\n
This means the worst-case scenario may not be certain, but the risk\nis substantial enough to be wary of.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/super-el-nino-looms-not-just-heat-but-also-thinning-wallets-1777704746", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }