Strong US Dollar Pushes Indonesian Rupiah to Rp16,810/USD
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The Indonesian rupiah opened weaker against the US dollar in its first trading session of the week on Monday 2 March 2026, following market reaction to escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after Israeli and American strikes on Iran over the weekend.
According to Refinitiv data, the rupiah depreciated to Rp16,810/USD, weakening by 0.30%. At the previous trading session on Friday 27 February 2026, the rupiah closed with a 0.06% depreciation at Rp16,760/USD.
Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) at 09.00 WIB was recorded in positive territory, strengthening by 0.22% to reach 97.821.
Rupiah movements in today’s trading are expected to be influenced by a combination of external and domestic sentiment.
From an external perspective, US dollar strengthening has occurred amid increased demand for safe-haven assets following American and Israeli strikes on Iran over the weekend. The conflict has triggered global market concerns due to its potential to escalate geopolitical tensions in the Middle East region, including potential disruption to maritime traffic in the oil-rich Gulf region.
Additionally, Iran has reportedly launched attacks against US assets in several surrounding countries, including the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Iraq, and Syria. This situation has driven market participants to seek US dollar-denominated assets, thereby supporting DXY strengthening.
The strengthening dollar index reflects increased investor interest in the US dollar, which can ultimately pressure most other currencies, including the rupiah.
Domestically, market participants are also monitoring the release of February 2026 inflation data to be announced by the Central Statistics Agency (BPS) today.
Market consensus compiled by CNBC Indonesia from 13 institutions estimates that the February 2026 Consumer Price Index (CPI) will experience inflation of 0.3% on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, inflation is estimated to reach 4.34%, with core inflation projected to strengthen to 2.49%.
For reference, in January 2026 Indonesia experienced deflation of 0.15% on a monthly basis. Nevertheless, on an annual basis, the CPI still recorded inflation of 3.55%, whilst core inflation remained at 2.45%.
According to BPS records, monthly inflation in February over the past five years has been relatively low, averaging only 0.03%. However, February 2026 inflation is believed to have potential to increase with the timing of Ramadan, which began on 19 February 2026.
This inflation release will be an important market focus as it can influence Bank Indonesia’s (BI) future interest rate policy direction. As is known, inflation developments constitute one of the key factors that BI considers when determining the direction of the BI Rate, which will ultimately also impact rupiah movements.