Strait of Hormuz Heats Up; We Are Not Short of Fuel, We Are Short of Preparedness

The news that two Indonesian tankers have finally been allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz is indeed something to be grateful for. However, if we stop at that sense of relief, we are making the same mistake of assuming a crisis only occurs when stocks are truly depleted. In fact, in the energy industry, a crisis never starts with scarcity. A crisis always begins with uncertainty. And today, that uncertainty is right in front of us.

The Strait of Hormuz is not just an ordinary sea route. Around 20% of the world’s oil supply passes through this strait. When this route is disrupted, the world does not only lose global oil but also loses certainty. Oil prices surge. Tanker costs rise to extreme levels. War insurance premiums skyrocket sharply. This is no longer a warning signal. This is the early phase of a global energy crisis.

Yet domestically, the prevailing narrative is still simplistic: “Stocks are safe.” The question is, safe for how long, and at what price?

The government has stated that the national energy supply remains secure. That is important and must be appreciated. However, there is one thing that is often overlooked: Indonesia’s energy resilience is still measured in weeks, not months. In normal global conditions, this figure is sufficient. In the current geopolitical conditions, this figure is a vulnerable zone.

Because we do not live in a closed energy system. We are part of the global market. And in the current global market, what is happening is not a direct supply shortage, but an explosion of volatility. Prices can change quickly. Distribution can be disrupted suddenly. And panic can spread faster than supplies.

An energy crisis will not first be seen in ministry meeting rooms. It will be seen at petrol stations. In suddenly long queues. In stocks that suddenly feel “thinning”. In consumers starting to buy more than usual. And at that point, one thing becomes clear: Scarcity is often not because stocks are exhausted, but because public confidence begins to waver.

This is what is most dangerous. Because panic buying does not require a real crisis, just the perception that a crisis might occur. And what will be hit is not the state but the businesses on the ground.

In every energy crisis, the state may have reserves, policies, and diplomacy. However, downstream businesses at petrol stations, distribution, and retail do not have that luxury. They are the first to face demand surges. They are the first to feel supply delays. They are the first to bear margin pressures. And ironically, they are also the ones most rarely included in strategic discussions.

There are two major mistakes in facing a crisis: The first is panic. The second is feeling too safe. And right now, we risk doing the second.

Because the reality is simple: We may not be short of fuel today. But we are already in an unstable global system. And in an unstable system, what is most dangerous is not shortage, but lack of preparedness.

This crisis is still too early to measure as fast or slow. The Strait of Hormuz may be geographically distant. However, in the global energy economy, distance is no longer relevant. What happens there today will determine prices, distribution, and stability here, in a much shorter time than we imagine.

So the question is no longer: will we be affected? But, are we prepared enough when the impact truly arrives?

Fuel still contributes around 30% to the national energy mix, making it highly vulnerable to geopolitical turmoil and global price fluctuations.