Strait of Hormuz Disrupted, Oil Price Breaches US$103.05
Jakarta — Global oil prices recovered on the morning of 17 March 2026 following a sharp correction in the previous session, as market concerns over global supply disruptions resurfaced amid ongoing complications to a vital energy corridor in the Middle East.
According to Refinitiv data at 09:10 Western Indonesia Time on 17 March 2026, Brent crude was trading at US$103.05 per barrel, whilst West Texas Intermediate (WTI) stood at US$95.96 per barrel. Both recorded increases compared to the previous day’s close of US$100.21 for Brent and US$93.50 for WTI respectively.
The increase followed renewed market attention on global oil supply disruptions triggered by ongoing conflict between the United States and Israel against Iran. The tensions have now entered their third week and sparked serious concerns over global energy distribution routes.
According to Reuters, the surge in oil prices stemmed from significant disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which approximately 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas trade flows. This strait represents one of the most strategically critical chokepoints in the global energy system, serving as the primary export outlet for oil from the Gulf region.
The situation has been complicated by several US allies refusing Washington’s request to deploy naval vessels to escort oil tankers transiting the area. This refusal has heightened security uncertainty for energy transport vessels operating in the strait.
On another front, logistical disruptions have begun impacting production. The United Arab Emirates, the third-largest oil producer within the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), has reportedly been forced to significantly reduce production. The nation’s oil output has reportedly fallen by more than half due to constrained export routes through the Strait of Hormuz.
Tensions are also reflected in heightened security risks for tanker vessels. Markets fear that missile or mine attacks on tankers could reignite broader conflict escalation whilst simultaneously worsening global energy supply disruptions.
These conditions have prompted various international energy institutions to consider market stabilisation measures. The head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) has even suggested member countries may again release strategic oil reserves to curb energy price surges. Previously, member nations had agreed to release approximately 400 million barrels from strategic reserves.
Amid this uncertainty, several financial institutions have begun adjusting medium-term oil price projections. Bank of America, for instance, raised its 2026 Brent price projection to US$77.50 per barrel from the previous US$61. Standard Chartered raised its projection to US$85.50 per barrel from the previous US$70.
However, these projections are heavily dependent on the trajectory of Middle Eastern conflict. Should supply disruptions be resolved by April, oil prices are expected to decline towards the US$70 per barrel range. Conversely, if disruptions persist into the second quarter, prices could remain in the US$85 per barrel range or higher.
Meanwhile, Israel has reportedly prepared military operation plans for at least the next three weeks, suggesting the conflict will not ease imminently. This condition keeps global energy markets in a phase of high uncertainty, with oil prices remaining highly sensitive to geopolitical developments in the Gulf region.