Strait of Hormuz Closure Leaves Indonesia in Vulnerable Position
Jakarta – The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is raising concerns about global energy supplies, including those to Indonesia. The strategic waterway has long served as one of the primary routes for transporting crude oil from the Middle East to several Asian countries.
According to Komaidi Notonegoro, Executive Director of the ReforMiner Institute, the impact of closing the Strait of Hormuz could be significant, particularly for countries in the Pacific region, as 25-40% of energy supplies for the Pacific region transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
“Nearly 25-40% passing through the Strait of Hormuz is primarily for Pacific region countries including China, India, Japan and South Korea – those are the four major ones – plus ourselves, Thailand, Singapore and Southeast Asian nations. That’s because it’s the closest geographically and most cost-competitive compared to other routes,” Komaidi told CNBC Indonesia on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.
According to Komaidi, Indonesia is currently in a vulnerable position. The nation’s oil consumption currently reaches approximately 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd), whilst domestic production stands at only around 600,000 bpd.
“From 600,000 bpd we only get 60%, which is 480,000 bpd, meaning 1.2 million bpd has to be imported – a mixture of crude and refined products – and most of this comes from the Middle East region, plus also from Southeast Asia, Singapore and Malaysia for refined products,” he explained.
Beyond oil, Komaidi identified an equally critical risk: liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) supplies. Domestic LPG consumption reaches approximately 9 million tonnes per year, whilst domestic production is only around 1.8 million tonnes.
Under these circumstances, Indonesia must import approximately 7.2 million tonnes of LPG per year. Approximately 52% of Indonesia’s LPG imports originate from the United States and 48% from the Middle East.
“It happens that both are involved in regional conflicts – the US is also involved there and the Middle East region is also embroiled in conflicts with the Iran-Israel escalation and possibly involving other proxies too. This is what I believe needs to be anticipated because it relates to the most fundamental energy needs,” he added.
As is known, Iran announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The country has even threatened to open fire on all ships that attempt to pass through.
This represents the latest escalation following attacks by the United States and Israel on the country on Saturday. The attack, named Trump Operation Epic Fury, resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei.
Consequently, Iran retaliated by firing missiles at Israel and Gulf nations hosting U.S. military bases, including Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Hezbollah, an Iranian-affiliated military group in Lebanon, also stated it would defend Iran and avenge Khamenei’s death.
Citing Reuters and Al Jazeera, the statement was released through Iran’s website on Monday local time. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and firing threats were made by a commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
“The strait is closed. If anyone tries to pass through it, the heroes of the Revolutionary Guards and regular navy will burn those ships,” said Ebrahim Jabari, senior adviser to the IRGC’s Supreme Commander, according to reports on Tuesday, 3 March 2026.
He also threatened to attack oil pipeline routes, potentially driving crude oil prices to $200 per barrel, up from current levels.
“We will also attack oil pipeline routes and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave this region. Oil prices will reach $200 within the coming days,” Jabari said.