Strait of Hormuz Closure Could Alter the Global Trade Map
Trade Minister Budi Santoso said geopolitics such as the US–Israel conflict and tensions involving Iran are likely to influence the reshaping of the global trade map. He noted that geopolitical dynamics such as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt global supply chains, hindering exports and imports. However, he said there are gaps that entrepreneurs can exploit when distribution supply chains are disrupted.
To proceed, he said, entrepreneurs should diversify markets toward countries experiencing supply gaps due to global supply chain disruptions, such as Africa or Southeast Asia. ‘But we must be careful; we should survey properly whether the region is indeed heavily affected,’ he said at the Ministry of Trade complex in Jakarta, on Thursday, 5 March 2026.
Exporters targeted for market diversification are micro, small and medium enterprises (UMKM). He said most UMKM exporters are new to exporting, so they will find it easier to diversify markets in the short term.
Budi said he plans to meet with Indonesian exporters, including Gabungan Perusahaan Ekspor Indonesia. He explained the meeting aims to discuss issues faced by exporters, including potential market diversification. There are exporters who also import raw materials for production.
Ateng Hartono, Deputy for Distribution Statistics and Services at the Indonesian Central Statistics Agency (BPS), said the impact of the Iran conflict on trade between Indonesia and the Middle East is still to be studied. But as a snapshot, three partner countries along the Hormuz route are Iran, Oman, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Ateng said non-oil imports from Iran to Indonesia in 2025 reached US$8.4 million, while non-oil exports from Indonesia to Iran in 2025 stood at US$249.1 million.
Between Indonesia and Oman, non-oil imports in 2025 reached US$718.8 million, and non-oil exports to Oman were US$428.8 million.
With the UAE, Indonesia’s imports reached US$1.4 billion, and non-oil exports to the UAE in 2025 were US$4.0 billion.
The Strait of Hormuz itself is a vital conduit for world trade, handling around 20% of global oil consumption and 20-25% of global LNG trade. Disruptions in the Strait followed the United States and Israel’s attack on Iran on Saturday, 28 February 2026.