Strait of Hormuz Closed by Iran, Is the World Facing an Energy Crisis?
Iran has officially closed the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, 28 February 2026. This action is in retaliation for a reported combined military strike by the United States and Israel that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei.
The closure of this vital maritime route has immediately shaken global energy markets. The Strait of Hormuz has historically served as the “lifeblood” of global oil distribution.
Approximately 20 per cent of global oil supply and 20 per cent of liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments pass through the narrow waterway situated between Iran and Oman daily. The closure of the strait threatens to trap millions of barrels of oil per day, preventing them from reaching international markets.
Direct Impact on Oil Prices
According to The Guardian, prior to the latest escalation on Monday, 2 March 2026, global oil prices stood at around US$67 per barrel (equivalent to Rp1,125,600). Markets had initially projected that a limited conflict would add approximately US$10 per barrel (equivalent to Rp168,000).
However, following the official announcement of the closure, price projections surged sharply. Brent crude oil is estimated to rise to US$73 per barrel (equivalent to Rp1,226,400), with potential to reach US$90 (equivalent to Rp1,512,000). In a worst-case scenario where disruptions persist for an extended period, prices could exceed US$100 per barrel, or equivalent to Rp1,680,000.
This surge risks triggering new global inflationary pressure, raising fuel prices, logistics costs, and the price of essential goods across various countries.
Why Is the Strait of Hormuz So Strategic?
The Strait of Hormuz is approximately 33 kilometres wide at its narrowest point, with an effective shipping lane of only about 3 kilometres in each direction. This geographic position makes it the most critical chokepoint in global energy trade.
Up to 15 million barrels of oil per day could be affected if tanker traffic is disrupted. Alternative routing options are severely limited, meaning any disruption in this region will almost certainly have a direct impact on global energy prices.
Meanwhile, Iran itself possesses the world’s fourth-largest oil reserves, approximately 170 billion barrels or 9 per cent of global total reserves. The country is also the fourth-largest producer within OPEC and one of the world’s major crude oil exporters.