Storm of Sentiment Looms, IDX and Rupiah at Risk of Continued Decline?

Only 133 stocks strengthened, 576 weakened, and 105 remained stagnant. Transaction value reached Rp21.88 trillion with a trading volume of around 48.20 billion shares in more than 2.66 million transactions.

Foreign investors recorded a net sell of Rp1.49 trillion, bringing the total foreign fund outflow over the week to Rp8.56 trillion.

Shifting to the foreign exchange market, the rupiah closed weaker against the US dollar on Thursday (30/4/2026) trading. This followed the global market’s response to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to hold interest rates steady.

The US stock market rally is expected to be tested this week as investors scrutinise a new wave of corporate earnings reports and the latest employment data. This comes amid surging oil prices and increasingly aggressive stance from the central bank.

Wall Street’s major indices closed mixed at the end of last week after a sharp rebound throughout April from concerns over the economic impact of the Middle East war. Strong corporate profit performance became the main pillar of market optimism, while dampening various external pressures.

The S&P 500 rose 0.29% to close at 7,230.12.

Meanwhile, the Nasdaq Composite strengthened 0.89% to reach an all-time high of 25,114.44. Both indices achieved new closing records.

On the other hand, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 152.87 points or 0.31% to 49,499.27.

The benchmark S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite recorded their largest monthly gains since 2020. Throughout April, the S&P 500 surged more than 10%, while the Nasdaq soared over 15%, and both continued rising at the start of May.

However, behind this rally, a tug-of-war in sentiment is emerging.

“On one hand, we see a surge in corporate profits, but on the other, there is pressure from rising oil prices and bond yields,” said Angelo Kourkafas from Edward Jones, quoted from Refinitiv. He assessed that the market could enter a consolidation phase after the strong rally throughout April.

Oil prices spiked sharply, with Brent breaching US$120 per barrel before correcting.

This surge was triggered by the US-Israel conflict with Iran disrupting global supplies. Although there were hopes from a ceasefire, ongoing tensions keep the market cautious.

“Every day that passes, the economic risk grows larger,” said Jeff Buchbinder from LPL Financial.

He warned that if oil prices remain above US$120 for the next few months, the impact on the global economy could be far more serious.

Earnings Season Heats Up

More than 100 companies in the S&P 500 are scheduled to release earnings this week. Overall, corporate profits are estimated to jump 27.8% in the first quarter of 2026 compared to the previous year. This marks the fastest growth since the end of 2021.

Several tech giants previously released results with mixed outcomes.

Alphabet shares surged due to strong cloud business growth, while Microsoft and Meta Platforms weakened after results that disappointed the market.

This week, attention will focus on reports from Palantir Technologies, The Walt Disney Company, and McDonald’s.

Additionally, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) performance is a major highlight. AMD shares have risen more than 80% since the end of March, amid euphoria in the semiconductor and artificial intelligence sectors.

“This is the sector dominating market movements right now. Every new data point will be crucial,” said Michael O’Rourke from JonesTrading.

Jobs Data Becomes Key, Rate Cut Hopes Fade

In addition to earnings reports, investors are awaiting US April employment data to be released on 8 May. Economists forecast an addition of 60,000 jobs.

This figure slows from 178,000 in March but is better than the sharp drop in February.

“The labour market is indeed slowing, but still holding up sufficiently,” said Buchbinder.

This data is crucial amid fading hopes for rate cuts. The latest Federal Reserve meeting showed internal divisions, with several officials deeming inflation risks still high and even opening the possibility of rate hikes.

This hawkish stance, combined with the oil price surge, has pushed US government bond yields to a one-month high. The 10-year Treasury yield was recorded around 4.38%.

This yield increase could pose a threat to the stock market by raising borrowing costs for consumers and businesses.

“If the 10-year yield breaks 4.5%, investors will start questioning stock valuations,” said Kourkafas.

This week opens with a series of data releases directly touching key inflation pulses, trade balances, and US employment indicators.

The direction of risky assets will heavily depend on whether price pressures ease and whether the global economy remains strong enough to withstand high interest rates.

At the same time, high energy prices and global supply chain disruptions keep cost pressures alive. This condition makes market participants tend to hold positions while awaiting certainty from incoming data one by one.

Here is the economic agenda throughout this week:

War Developments

President Donald Trump stated on Sunday that the United States will attempt to “free” cargo ships stranded due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the war with Iran began.

This effort, which Trump called “Project Freedom” in his Truth Social post, is scheduled to start on Monday. The president stated that the operation focuses only on evacuating civilian ships from non-conflict countries to return to normal operations.

“I have asked my representatives to inform them that we will strive as much as possible to get the ships and their crews out safely from the strait,” said Trump. “In all cases,