Stock Exchange Reopens Tomorrow: Can the JCI End the Curse?
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The movement of the Composite Stock Price Index (JCI) on the first trading day after the long Eid al-Fitr holiday shows balanced probabilities.
The Indonesian stock exchange will reopen on Wednesday (25 March 2026) after the long Lebaran holiday since 18 March 2026.
Based on data from the Indonesia Stock Exchange (BEI) for the period 2016 to 2025, the JCI recorded strengthening five times and weakening five times when the exchange resumed operations.
From a fundamental perspective, the index’s movement at the start of trading post-holiday represents a price adjustment (price-in). While the domestic exchange was closed, global macroeconomic dynamics continued to unfold.
Various external sentiments, economic data releases, or international policies that emerged during that period will be responded to by the market simultaneously on the first trading day.
For example, on the weakening side, when the exchange opened post-Lebaran in 2025, the JCI recorded a correction of 7.90%. This decline was the market’s response to the announcement of US import tariff policies that surfaced during the long holiday.
A similar situation occurred in 2022, where the index fell 4.42% as an adjustment to the US Federal Reserve’s decision to raise its benchmark interest rate.
On the other hand, strengthening trends were also recorded when dominant positive catalysts were present. In 2016, the JCI closed up 1.96%, driven by positive responses from domestic and foreign market participants to the enactment of the Tax Amnesty law.
This historical data indicates that the direction of the JCI’s movement after the Lebaran holiday is more dictated by macroeconomic sentiments and fundamental conditions than by seasonal factors.
Therefore, monitoring regional exchange movements, commodity prices, and global data releases during the domestic exchange’s holiday is a relevant step to gauge the market opening direction and determine asset allocation strategies.
Data from the past 10 years shows that the JCI has always plummeted sharply in the last two years post-Lebaran. The JCI is now challenged to end the curse. Unfortunately, the JCI will immediately face a heavy test on Wednesday, especially from external sources. Developments in the Iran war, soaring energy prices, and a more hawkish stance from the Fed are expected to shake the JCI.
As is known, the US Federal Reserve (The Fed) has again maintained interest rates at 3.50-3.75%. The Fed is also expected to cut rates once this year, more pessimistic than the previous projection of twice.
The Fed announced the interest rates on Wednesday US time or Thursday early morning Indonesian time (19 March 2026) while Indonesia was still on Lebaran holiday. This means the Fed’s impact has not yet been factored into the Indonesian financial market movements.
The following is a summary of the JCI’s performance on the first trading day post-Lebaran holiday (2016-2025).