Special Forces Soldier Arrested After Winning $400,000 Bet on Maduro's Capture

A US Special Forces soldier has been arrested by law enforcement authorities after allegedly betting on the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro in January 2026. The soldier involved in Operation Absolute Resolve, the operation to apprehend Maduro, profited US400, 000orapproximatelyRp6.89billion(atanexchangerateofRp17, 245/US) from his bet. The arrested Special Forces soldier is Sergeant Major Gannon Ken Van Dyke. He opened an account at the end of December on Polymarket, one of the most famous prediction markets. He bet around US$32,000 that Maduro would be “captured” in January. This was a bet with low odds of winning. However, according to prosecutors, Van Dyke was involved in the planning and execution of Operation Absolute Resolve and had access to classified information before placing the bet. His win, although anonymous, quickly drew the attention of law enforcement, as quoted from a CNN International report on Saturday (25/4/2026). Van Dyke is an active soldier stationed at Fort Bragg. For the alleged case, he faces five criminal charges for theft and misuse of government classified information, theft, and fraud. He will have his first hearing in North Carolina. No lawyer is yet listed for him in the court docket. He is suspected of placing 13 bets from 27 December 2025 to 2 January 2026, with the last one made hours before the capture that night. Prosecutors say Van Dyke transferred his winnings of more than US$400,000 to a foreign cryptocurrency vault before depositing it into an online brokerage account. Van Dyke’s rank in the US Army as a sergeant major is considered a key tactical leader and technical expert, serving as a principal non-commissioned officer, typically at the battalion level in the Army. Senior non-commissioned officers are often relied upon to set and enforce standards for more junior soldiers in his unit. “Those entrusted to safeguard our nation’s secrets have an obligation to protect them and our armed forces members, and not to use that information for personal financial gain,” said Jay Clayton, US Attorney for the Southern District of New York. In court documents, it is stated that Van Dyke was photographed right after the operation and since placing his last bet in what appears to be a ship’s deck at sea at sunrise, wearing a US military uniform and carrying a rifle, standing next to three others also in US military uniforms. After the bet was placed, the US military launched a secret operation that extradited Maduro from the presidential palace in Caracas in an overnight capture under heavy gunfire. Maduro was transported to New York to face federal charges related to drug trafficking. He has pleaded not guilty. According to prosecutors, Van Dyke profited more than US$400,000. He then allegedly transferred the winning money to an overseas cryptocurrency vault before depositing it into an online brokerage account, which prosecutors describe as an attempt to conceal its origins. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) filed a related complaint against Van Dyke on Thursday, seeking restitution, disgorgement of illegal profits, and civil monetary penalties. Additionally, in a post on X, Polymarket stated, “When we identify a user trading on government classified information, we refer the matter to the Department of Justice and cooperate with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof that the system works.” ABC News first reported the arrest on Thursday. The issue of the increasing prevalence of betting on prediction markets related to global geopolitical conflicts has previously attracted the attention of US President Donald Trump. Trump told reporters on Thursday that he is concerned about the trend of rising bets on geopolitical events. When asked about the charges against the US soldier, the president said he was unaware of the specific details of the incident but compared it to Pete Rose, the all-time hits leader in baseball. “It’s like Pete Rose betting on his own team,” Trump said, referring to the late baseball player who was banned from baseball for gambling. When asked further if he was worried about bets related to war with Iran, Trump said it was a global issue. “Well, I think the whole world, unfortunately, has become a sort of casino,” Trump added, noting that such gambling occurs “all over the world, and everywhere they do these gambling things.” “Now, I suppose I’m not happy with that,” he concluded. The Trump administration approved Polymarket last year to start offering trading to American customers, but the site facing the US is not yet fully operational. The Maduro-related transactions occurred on Polymarket’s highly popular international site. The site operates outside US regulatory reach - which is why it can offer markets related to wars, which are illegal under federal law. However, experts say Americans can easily access the foreign site using virtual private networks, or VPNs. There is debate in the prediction market industry regarding the role of insiders in prediction markets. Some experts see these markets as a vehicle for information to flow more freely from insiders to the general public. When asked about the risk of insider trading, Polymarket’s CEO told Axios in November that it