Sorry! The World’s Mango King Is Not Indonesia

Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia – The global mango market is growing, but Indonesia has yet to make the most of it. The country produces millions of tonnes of mangoes a year, but a large harvest does not automatically guarantee a strong position in international trade.

With the global mango market projected to reach US$70.6 billion, or Rp1,283.17 trillion (US$1 = Rp18,175), by 2031, the challenge is to turn production capacity into greater economic value.

Mordor Intelligence estimates the market will grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 3.87% between 2026 and 2031.

Demand from retail and food services, increased production supported by subsidies for land expansion in India, Mexico and Kenya, and controlled-atmosphere shipping technology that reduces post-harvest losses are driving market growth.

Rising household incomes in Asia-Pacific, the growth of plant-based beverage markets in North America and Europe, and digital platforms that reduce intermediary margins are also creating new business opportunities.

Technological advances are also lowering sea-freight costs and extending market reach without compromising fruit quality.

Prices nevertheless remain subject to seasonal fluctuations. Prices for Brazilian mangoes have weakened, while those for Peruvian mangoes have risen because supplies are tighter.

Diversifying supplier countries helps traders manage risk, while demand from high-income Gulf states and China’s off-season purchases of mangoes from Vietnam are supporting global demand.

India leads production, Indonesia among the top producers

FAOSTAT data for 2024 puts India first among producers of mangoes, guavas and mangosteens, with output of 27.77 million tonnes. Indonesia ranked second with 4.14 million tonnes, followed by China with 4.08 million tonnes.

India’s significant output is also evident in data specifically covering mangoes.

Government data from India compiled by IndianAgri recorded the country’s mango production at 23.1 million tonnes in the 2024–2025 marketing year, up 3.3% from 22.4 million tonnes in the previous period.

In a 2013 publication, India’s Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare recorded mango production of 10.99 million tonnes from an area of 1.23 million hectares.

The same publication said India had exported fresh mangoes to a number of markets, including the United Arab Emirates, Bangladesh, the United Kingdom, Saudi Arabia and Nepal, according to trade records for 2011–2012.

Meanwhile, Statistics Indonesia (BPS) data shows that Indonesia produced 3.01 million tonnes of mangoes in 2025, down about 8.9% from 3.30 million tonnes in 2024.

National production had previously risen from 2.84 million tonnes in 2021 to 3.31 million tonnes in 2022. It then remained relatively stable in 2023 and 2024 before declining in 2025. Although output remains higher than in 2021, the annual drop shows that domestic production does not always rise.

Global market forecast to grow, with Indonesia also on the rise

A February 2026 report by the Market Intelligence Cell for India’s Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) put Indonesia’s export price at US$2,583 per tonne, or about Rp46.94 million (US$1 = Rp18,175), in February 2026, up 9% from US$2,380 per tonne in February 2025.

The report forecasts prices for March to May 2026 and categorises the outlook for Indonesia as bullish, or tending to strengthen.

APEDA linked the outlook, among other factors, to Indonesia’s efforts to expand access for tropical fruit in Canada through the Indonesia-Canada Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (ICA-CEPA).

The ICA-CEPA is projected to increase Indonesian exports to Canada to as much as US$11.8 billion by 2030 and boost Indonesia’s GDP growth by 0.12%.

The agreement covers trade in goods and services, investment, legal certainty, regulatory transparency and sustainable trade. It also focuses on several strategic sectors, including downstream processing of critical minerals, clean energy, agri-food and fisheries.

Market expansion and diversification of export destinations are seen as potentially supporting prices, although seasonal export volumes are expected to remain moderate.

The projections point to an economic opportunity that is still developing. However, the size of the global market does not in itself indicate the value of global exports or the income received by producing countries.

For Indonesia, the opportunity must be considered alongside its ability to maintain supply, meet quality standards and reach international markets.