Smog-hit SE Asia could become tourist no-go zone

Smog-hit SE Asia could become tourist no-go zone

By Chris Johnson

SINGAPORE (Reuters): Choking yellow-gray smog over Southeast
Asia has already closed factories, canceled flights and
lengthened queues in doctors' waiting-rooms.

But much worse could be in store if the raging forest fires
across Indonesia are not put out soon -- and for good.

Business executives and analysts say tourists may shun the
entire region, badly damaging a US$26 billion industry, if it
gets a reputation for polluted air during the September-November
season.

"If it is a constant thing, the whole area at that time of the
year will be a no-go zone," said John Koldowski, director of
strategic information at the Pacific Asia Tourist Association.

Industry is only beginning to count the cost of the fires,
which have now been burning across Indonesia's Sumatra and
Kalimantan for three months. Analysts say the total bill for the
disaster is likely to run into billions of dollars.

They note a growing anger that the problem is partly self-
inflicted, since many of the fires were caused deliberately to
clear forests for agriculture or plantations.

Aside from accidents in which smog could have been a factor --
at least two shipping collisions and the crash of a Garuda
Indonesia aircraft which killed all 234 people on board --
experts say a big casualty will be lost working days.

Some 20 million people live in the worst-affected parts of
Indonesia and many millions more in the east Malaysian state of
Sarawak and the cities of Kuala Lumpur and Singapore, which have
been blanketed by the suffocating pollution.

Although the onset of the northerly monsoon has now begun to
blow the smoke away from some of these areas, many cities
continue to report outbreaks of breathing disorders and skin
ailments as a result of the poor air quality.

Singapore's air Pollutants Standard Index (PSI) was at
unhealthy levels for much of the last week with the three-hour
measurement reaching a peak of 175 at 1100 GMT on Oct. 23.

A reading of zero to 50 is considered good, 51-100 moderate,
101-200 unhealthy and 201-300 very unhealthy.

The Singapore Environment Ministry advises the old and sick to
stay indoors and all citizens to avoid vigorous outdoor
activities while the PSI is in the unhealthy range.

"We estimate that hospital visits for upper respiratory type
problems were up two to three times above their normal levels
when the smog was at its worst in Indonesia," said Steve Tamplin
at the World Health Organization Philippine's office in Manila.

"This has an impact on days off work but we are just now
beginning to collect the data," he said.

The picture in Singapore was similar with some hospitals
reporting a doubling of respiratory complaints.

"This would mean a significant decline in man-hours because
people are falling ill and calling in sick," said Keven Scully,
managing director of Schroder Securities in Singapore.

The smog has reduced visibility across the region, closing at
least a dozen Indonesian airports and delaying or halting
completely air traffic to and from some Malaysian cities.

Malaysia Airlines System (MAS) says it has lost 6.5 million
ringgit ($1.95 million) due to cancellations of flights caused by
the smog. A total of 890 domestic flights and 34 international
trips were scrapped last month alone.

Other airlines, including Singapore's Silkair and Garuda,
have also been hit by the poor visibility.

The effect on tourism appears to have been almost immediate
and threatens to be much more long-lasting.

Industry executives say Southeast Asia's inter-regional
tourist industry was already suffering from the collapse in the
region's currencies and the air pollution is now also reducing
visits from some long-haul origins.

Some of Singapore tourist hotels report bookings down by as
much as a third and five-star hotels have reported a reduction in
business customers. Singapore's Ritz-Carlton, one of the city's
most expensive hotels, says occupancy rates are down 10 percent.
Hoteliers say they expect to be able to ride out the problem this
year and hope the seasonal rains will put out the fires in
Indonesia by December.

Their nightmare scenario would be for the fires to keep
smoldering or to be started again next year, destroying the
essential tourist brochure image of sunshine and sandy beaches.
"Reputation for blue skies is vital," Citibank said in its
monthly Asian Market View.

United Nations climate experts in Geneva said last Friday that
rains in Indonesia could be delayed far beyond the normal start
of the monsoon due to the El Nio phenomenon, a periodic
upswelling of warmer water in the Pacific Ocean which distorts
normal weather patterns.

One climate scientist said the rains could be suppressed for
three months.

Koldowski said the long-term effect will depend on whether the
problem persists or recurs next year.

"The media are issuing stories on the problem throughout
Europe and the U.S.," he said. "It is no longer a localized
problem. It's obvious to the whole world." ($1 = 3.33 Malaysian
ringgit)