Singapore's export growth slower in June but 2004 forecasts raised
Singapore's export growth slower in June but 2004 forecasts raised
Agence France-Presse Singapore
Singapore's main exports grew 20.9 percent in June from a year ago, slower than the previous month's 27.7 percent, but the outlook for the rest of the year remains upbeat, the government said on Friday.
In the January-June period, non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 17.8 percent on year to S$63.2 billion (US$37.18 billion), International Enterprise Singapore said in a statement.
NODX in June were worth S$11.1 billion, within market projections of 17.0-23.5 percent, and total trade expanded an annual 27.1 percent to S$48.84 billion.
"This positive performance is supported by the brighter outlook in the external environment, as well as the strengthening of the global electronics demand and the improving demand in the regional economies," it said.
"All major trade components performed well in the first half of 2004," it added.
Total trade in the first half was up a robust 21.9 percent at S$274 billion, the government trade promotion arm said as it raised the year's projections for trade growth to 15.0-17.0 percent from 8.0-10.0 percent.
Continued strong export orders, especially for electronics goods, from the world's major economies were the main reason behind the revised projections, IE Singapore said.
"Global business confidence has bettered previous expectations, and governments in key Asian economies have also pumped up spending in the domestic economy," it said.
In January-June, NODX to Singapore's top 10 destinations was up on increased electronics orders, with the United States the only market where shipments fell.
Particularly encouraging for Singapore in the first half was a 48 percent jump in NODX to China.
NODX to regional markets like Malaysia and Thailand also posted growth of more than 10 percent from a year ago.
Electronics, which make up half of Singapore's NODX, accelerated 14.2 percent in the first half, while non-electronics exports, led by pharmaceuticals and petrochemicals, also put in a rousing display with a 21.7 percent surge.
In June, electronics exports grew 29.6 percent to S$5.79 billion from a year ago and non-electronics exports, worth S$5.32 billion, rose 12.6 percent.
Economists say the NODX numbers in June and the first six months of 2004 were within expectations, but they did not share the government's optimistic projections for the full year.
"I believe some slowing down will take place in the second- half... I think the outlook for electronics may not be that upbeat," Suan Teck Kin, economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp.'s investment research arm, told AFP.
"Demand might moderate somewhat... and China is going to slow down its economy," he said, referring to Beijing's recent public remarks on plans to cool down its red-hot economy.
On the bright side, Suan said pharmaceutical exports would likely remain strong, helping offset the projected slowdown in electronics demand.
The monthly NODX figures are one of the main health indicators of Singapore's S$160 billion economy, which is heavily reliant on external trade.