Singapore cements 2004 growth as key exports rise 17.1%
Singapore cements 2004 growth as key exports rise 17.1%
Martin Abbugao, Agence France-Presse, Singapore
Singapore's key exports grew 17.1 percent in March from the previous year, beating analysts' forecasts and fulling already optimistic expectations of economic growth this year, the government and economists said on Friday.
Non-oil domestic exports (NODX) got a lift from continued growth in electronics shipments, as well the pharmaceutical sector, to total S$11.19 billion (US$6.66 billion).
The pace of growth slowed from the 25.7 percent posted in February but was still higher than the 13-16 percent rate forecast by economists.
Analysts, said they were not concerned about the slowdown because the February 2004 growth rate was compared with a lower base the previous year. February 2003 had fewer working days due to the Chinese Lunar New Year holidays.
International Enterprise Singapore, the government's trade body, described the 17.1 percent growth in March as "robust" and highlighted the expansion in both electronics and non-electronics sectors.
Electronics exports expanded for the second month in a row at 8.7 percent, powered by a 43 percent increase in shipments of telecommunications equipment and a 34.3 percent rise in exports of semiconductors.
The increases offset an 18.1 percent fall in exports of disk drives for personal computers and servers.
Pharmaceuticals exports jumped 49.6 percent, boosting growth in the non-electronics sector to 27 percent.
Total trade in March grew 22 percent to S$48.98 billion.
"Overall, it really reaffirms the recovery story and boosts optimism that we will hopefully see an upside surprise to the full-year growth," said Low Ping Yee, an economist with United Overseas Bank.
Low is projecting a 6.1 percent growth in gross domestic product (GDP) this year.
Standard Chartered Bank economist Joseph Tan, who expects growth of 6.6 percent GDP for 2004, described the March numbers as impressive.
"It continues to suggest that the export-led recovery remains fairly robust. It does indicate that the export growth will continue and I think that's going to be positive for Singapore's growth this year," Tan said.
Song Seng Wun, a regional economist with GK Goh brokerage, said the March export numbers reinforced his GDP forecast of up to 7.5 percent, possibly the highest among the analysts based here.
He expects NODX to expand 10-15 percent in the second quarter and should accelerate to 15-20 percent in the September quarter.
The strong March export figures followed government data released on Monday showing the Singapore economy surged 7.3 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, reinforcing expectations full-year GDP will grow faster than initially forecast.
The GDP growth rate, based on advance estimates for the first two months of the year, was the fastest year-on-year growth since the fourth quarter of 2000, the trade and industry ministry said.
Trade ministry officials said they expect to upgrade upwards next month their official growth forecast of 3.5-5.5 percent for this year.