Signs of the Monster Rising in Eastern Indonesia Begin to Appear, Threat Growing Clearer
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - Researchers predict the formation of an El Niño Godzilla phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean in August this year. This climate phenomenon has the potential to cause extreme weather across Asia and the Americas.
IFL Science reports that the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) estimates that sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean east of Indonesia will rise sharply over the next six months.
The surge in ocean temperatures located east of Indonesia forms the basis for the forecast of El Niño formation in August. Climate models indicate a 22 per cent potential for super El Niño formation, 80 per cent for strong events and 98 per cent for moderate events.
High-strength El Niño is called Godzilla El Niño. This phenomenon last occurred in 2015-2016 due to extremely high temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
The alternation between El Niño (warm phase) and La Niña (cold phase) is part of a climate system called the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Fluctuations in ocean temperature and changes in air pressure in the eastern Pacific impact the entire world in the form of changes in rainfall patterns, droughts, typhoons and heat waves.
During El Niño, weather patterns change drastically, causing heavy rainfall in the southern hemisphere and dry weather in the northern hemisphere. The formation of typhoons also becomes more frequent. Global average temperatures also rise during the El Niño phase.
The forecast of large-scale El Niño has not yet been formally announced by global meteorological bodies, from the United States’ NOAA to the UN’s WMO. However, all have signalled the formation of El Niño.
“The WMO community continues to monitor conditions carefully over the coming months to provide information to decision-makers. The most recent El Niño, which occurred in 2023-2024, was one of the five strongest ever recorded,” said Celeste Saulo, Secretary-General of the WMO.