Signs Emerge That Rice Production Will Decline, Here Is BPS's Explanation

Jakarta — Indonesia’s Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has recorded a forecast that national rice production for the January-February 2026 period will decline compared to the previous year.

Ateng Hartono, Deputy for Distribution and Services Statistics at BPS, reported that national rice production for February-April 2026 is estimated to reach 12.23 million tonnes, down 4.02% or 0.51 million tonnes from the same period last year, which was 12.74 million tonnes.

“The potential rice production for January to February 2026 is estimated to reach 12.23 million tonnes, a decrease of 0.51 million tonnes or 4.02% compared with the same period in the previous year,” Ateng said during a press conference at BPS headquarters in Jakarta on Monday (2 February 2026).

For the January-April 2026 period, rice production is estimated to reach 13.98 million tonnes, down 0.02 million tonnes or approximately 0.18% from January-April 2025, which totalled 14.01 million tonnes.

This situation aligns with a decline in harvested area, which is also experiencing a reduction.

For the February-April 2026 period, harvested area is predicted to shrink to 3.92 million hectares, down 0.16 million hectares or approximately 3.87% from the same period last year, which reached 4.08 million hectares.

“The potential harvested area for February-April 2026 is estimated to reach 3.92 million hectares or a decline of 0.16 million hectares or 3.87% when compared with the same period in the previous year,” Ateng continued.

For the January-April 2026 period, harvested area is predicted to shrink to 4.48 million hectares, down 0.01 million hectares or approximately 0.2% from January-April 2025, which reached 4.49 million hectares.

BPS revealed that the reason for the declining harvested area, which is causing potential rice production to decline, is the still high rainfall expected across Indonesia in the coming months.

“High rainfall will certainly impact rice cultivation in every region across Indonesia,” he said.