Signals Point to Significant Fuel Price Rise from 1 March: Here's the Calculation

Jakarta – Non-subsidised fuel prices are projected to rise or at least remain stagnant from 1 March 2026, following a sustained increase in global crude oil prices amid relatively stable rupiah exchange rates against the US dollar.

Global crude oil prices rose throughout February 2026 despite the rupiah maintaining steady levels against the American currency. These two indicators are crucial in determining whether non-subsidised fuel prices in Indonesia will increase or decrease.

According to Refinitiv data, the average price of Brent crude stood at USD 69.37 per barrel in February 2026, up 7.17% compared to the average price in January of USD 64.73 per barrel. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude averaged USD 64.44 per barrel in February, representing a 7.01% increase from the January average of USD 60.22 per barrel.

Global crude oil prices throughout February 2026 tended to rise, primarily driven by escalating tensions between the United States and Iran, which rekindled market concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East. These concerns were magnified given that approximately one-fifth of global oil flows pass through the Strait of Hormuz, meaning any escalation of conflict in the region immediately prompts the market to add a risk premium to oil prices.

Market anxiety over US-Iran tensions has helped push Brent crude to its highest level in six months. Iran represents one of the important producers within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, meaning the market views any potential disruption to production or distribution from Iran as a factor that could disrupt global supply equilibrium.

In this environment, market participants also closely monitored the possibility of anticipatory measures from other major producers, including the potential for gradual production increases by OPEC+ in April, which has thus far helped prevent prices from rising more sharply.

However, crude oil price increases have not proceeded without obstacles. From a fundamental perspective, a surge in US crude oil inventories became a market dampener. US crude oil stocks in mid-February rose 8.5 million barrels, far exceeding market expectations, as imports increased and refinery utilisation fell. As a result, whilst geopolitical sentiment remained dominant, the surge in US stocks limited further room for oil price appreciation.

Meanwhile, the rupiah exchange rate moved stably with a slight strengthening tendency throughout February. The rupiah appreciated 0.12% against the US dollar from the beginning of the month through Friday trading (27 February 2026) at the level of Rp 16,760/USD.

How Did February 2026 Fuel Prices Perform?

The government determines fuel prices based on a specific formula using two variables: the average global oil price and the rupiah exchange rate, given the scale of imports. Under the Energy and Mineral Resources Minister’s Decision Number 19 K/10/MEM/2019 concerning the Basic Price Formula in the Calculation of Retail Selling Prices for Fuel, the formula uses the average price published by Mean of Platts Singapore (MOPS) in USD per barrel, calculated from the 25th of two months prior through the 24th of one month prior for the current month’s determination.

According to Refinitiv data, the average Brent crude price over the past two months (February-January) was USD 66.99 per barrel, higher than the average of the two preceding months (January-December 2025) of USD 63.14 per barrel. The average WTI price over the past two months likewise showed an increase to USD 62.28 per barrel, up from USD 59.02 per barrel.

This crude oil price increase will impact Indonesia’s oil import costs. Consequently, despite the rupiah exchange rate remaining relatively stable with a strengthening tendency, the global crude oil price increase opens the possibility of non-subsidised fuel prices rising or at least remaining stagnant from 1 March 2026.

It should be noted that the government last raised fuel prices in December 2025. Subsequently, entering 2026, fuel prices were reduced in January and again fell in February. Fuel suppliers including Pertamina (Persero), Shell Indonesia, BP-AKR, and PT Vivo Energy Indonesia uniformly reduced non-subsidised fuel prices at the beginning of February, with adjustments effective from 1 February 2026.

For example, Pertamina’s Pertamax 92-octane fuel fell to Rp 11,800 per litre from Rp 12,350 per litre, whilst Pertamax Turbo declined to Rp 12,700 per litre from Rp 13,400 per litre. Pertamax Green 95 fell to Rp 12,450 per litre from Rp 13,150 per litre, Dexlite declined to Rp 13,250 per litre from Rp 13,500 per litre, and Pertamina Dex fell to Rp 13,500 per litre from Rp 13,600 per litre.

Private fuel stations also experienced price changes. For instance, BP-AKR stations saw BP 92 (RON 92) decline to Rp 12,050 per litre from Rp 12,500 per litre, BP Ultimate (RON 95) fall to Rp 12,500 per litre from Rp 13,190 per litre, and BP Ultimate Diesel (CN 53) decrease to Rp 13,600 per litre from Rp 13,860 per litre.