Scenario for Ending the US and Israel War Against Iran

Scenario for Ending the US and Israel War Against Iran

Note: This article is the personal opinion of the author and does not reflect the views of the CNBCIndonesia.com editorial team.

The US and Israel war with Iran is currently entering its fourth week. Although President Trump stated at the beginning of the attack on Iran that the war would last 4-5 weeks, no one now believes that timeline will hold. Even Trump and his ministers are no longer using that timeframe.

Amid this uncertainty, Trump posted on his social media a message that things are winding down to soon end this war. However, on the other hand, the US is mobilising an additional 2,500 marines to the war zone, and the US Government has just submitted an additional $200 billion budget request to Congress to support the war. Meanwhile, the day before, Trump stated that he did not approve Israel’s attack on Iran’s South Pars natural gas facilities because it could provoke Iranian retaliation against the oil and gas facilities of Arab Gulf countries (GCC). And indeed, that Iranian retaliation occurred.

What is actually happening?

To explain Trump’s thinking and decisions, a comprehensive analysis is needed that combines tactical war developments with an evaluation of US domestic political developments, as well as an analysis of risks to the US and global economy and finance.

From the perspective of US domestic politics, President Trump clearly does not want to prolong the war in Iran ahead of the 3 November 2026 midterm elections. His domestic political popularity is a major stake for the Republican Party and the effectiveness of his presidency. The latest survey depicts the Republican Party at risk of losing its majority in the House of Representatives, and it will be eroded or even possibly lose its majority in the Senate as well.

The risk of losing majorities in both legislative bodies is clear: the White House will lose its effectiveness in the second half of President Trump’s term. Even Trump himself could become a lame-duck president facing various investigations up to impeachment by a Congress under Democratic control. Therefore, it is very clear that a prolonged war is a red line for Trump.

For this reason, Trump conveyed his social media message clearly that things are winding down to end the war because the five US attack objectives in Iran have been achieved, namely: destroying Iran’s missile capabilities; dismantling Iran’s defence industry; crippling Iran’s navy and air force; preventing Iran from ever having nuclear weapon capabilities; and protecting US allies in the Middle East region.

Indeed, many analysts agree with Trump’s claim that he has achieved most of the first three objectives above. However, his claims regarding preventing Iran from having nuclear weapon capabilities, and protecting his allied countries, most analysts believe Trump is still far from those objectives. In this context, we can understand what Trump is actually doing by sending additional troops and military equipment to the war zone, while also requesting congressional support for additional war funding.

The additional marines and war budget are needed to prepare in case Trump decides to deploy troops into Iranian territory to pursue the fourth objective: searching for and destroying all facilities, elements, and processes of Iran’s uranium enrichment for producing nuclear weapons. That consideration must of course weigh the risk of significant US troop casualties that could occur with such a deployment. However, Trump appears ready to take that risk rather than sacrifice the November midterm elections.

Meanwhile, to achieve the fifth objective, the US and Israel will escalate their bombardment of Iran in the coming weeks with the aim of truly paralysing Iran’s capabilities to continue its attacks on GCC countries.

The Iranian Regime Survives and Efforts to Reopen Hormuz Fail

Regardless of whether the US can achieve the five objectives above and claim victory in this war, Iran can conversely claim victory because the Shia Theocratic Government regime has survived. In addition, Iran can also claim that the US and Israel failed to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.

The US shift in position, no longer stating regime change as an objective, shows that Trump has resigned himself to the continuation of the regime in Iran. Likewise, Trump’s social media post confirms the US failure at Hormuz by stating that reopening the strait is left to other countries whose oil and gas supply routes pass through that shipping lane.

The US itself, being energy self-sufficient in oil and gas, he said, is not dependent on the strait, so it has no major interest in it. That message appears to be an excuse to cover the inability of the US and Israel to force Iran to release the Strait of Hormuz, as well as a retort to NATO and other countries that last week were unwilling to support the US in sending troops to free the strait from Iran.

Can a Ceasefire and Negotiations Occur?

Even though the above situation opens a scenario for ending the war, Iran can be assured not to accept a ceasefire and return to negotiations unless it obtains certainty that the US and Israel will not attack again in the future. That certainty can only be accepted by Iran if US-allied Arab countries close US military bases and facilities there. In addition, Iran will demand compensation for all the damage and destruction that occurred during this war.

Negotiations between the two parties will certainly be very difficult to conduct later, because they start from very deep mutual suspicion and extremely different initial positions. Iran fully understands that the longer the war lasts, the heavier and riskier President Trump’s political position in his own country will be. This will encourage Iran to