Scandal? US Investigates Unusual Transactions Ahead of Trump's Statement on Iran
US derivative regulators are examining a number of unusual oil futures transactions that occurred minutes before a surprise announcement by President Donald Trump signalling a pause in the attack on Iran. This was first reported by Bloomberg News, as cited by CNBC International on Thursday (16/4/2026).
The investigation is led by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). The agency will review activity on trading venues operated by CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange, citing people familiar with the matter.
CME Group is the world’s largest derivatives exchange company, providing futures and options contracts for crude oil (WTI), gold, interest rates, and stock indices. Meanwhile, ICE is a global exchange company that also operates various financial markets, from energy (Brent oil and gas) to other commodity derivatives, and owns the world’s largest stock exchange, the New York Stock Exchange.
“Both exchanges have been asked to submit relevant records,” the report states.
Further, the CFTC is focusing on at least two incidents over a roughly two-week period when trading volumes spiked sharply right before major announcements. The information sought includes what is known as Tag 50 identifiers, which can be used to determine who was behind the transactions.
Tag 50 is not actually a market or instrument name but an identification code in the US electronic trading system. It is used as a transaction reporting system to track the actual parties behind trading orders.
Unfortunately, as reported by CNBC International, the CFTC and ICE declined to comment. CME did not specifically comment on the unusual transactions related to the Trump announcement, though it stated that any investigation should also include new platforms such as prediction markets.
“Nothing is more important than market integrity,” a CME spokesperson told CNBC International.
“We rigorously monitor our markets and work closely with the CFTC to oversee trading activity. Importantly, any review of market behaviour should encompass all trading venues, including prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi that list products with very low visibility or even no visibility at all,” the spokesperson explained.
CNBC International had previously reported suspicious activity on 23 March. This was when May e-mini S&P 500 futures contracts and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures suddenly experienced a surge in volume and isolated trading in a relatively quiet pre-market environment.
About 15 minutes later, Trump stated on Truth Social that the US and Iran had held talks and that he was halting a planned attack on Iran’s power plants and energy infrastructure. The announcement triggered an immediate reaction across markets, with e-mini S&P 500 futures jumping more than 2.5% before market open, and WTI crude oil futures plunging nearly 6%.
The sudden and simultaneous surge in volume for stock index and crude oil futures raised suspicions among traders, especially since it occurred without any clear news or trigger at the time. Last week, US Senators Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse urged the CFTC to open an investigation into the unusual trading, raising questions about repeated misuse of non-public government information.