SBY's Message to Trump and Khamenei Regarding Potential US-Iran War

Former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has highlighted the ongoing negotiations between the United States and Iran, noting that many nations, particularly those in the Middle East, are awaiting the outcome.

SBY acknowledged that the negotiation process, especially concerning Iran’s nuclear programme, is extraordinarily complex and that finding an acceptable solution for both sides is not straightforward. The fundamental interests of the two countries differ significantly. According to SBY, whilst negotiations proceed, two nations in the Middle East stand poised for war.

“The negotiators must also be astute in comprehending the thinking of both leaders who have mandated them, President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei. Creating ‘harmony’ between the negotiators and their superiors may likewise be exceedingly difficult,” SBY wrote via his personal X account @SBYudhoyono on Friday, 27 February.

With knowledge and experience in conflict resolution at both national and international levels, SBY acknowledged that negotiation is exhausting work.

“It requires patience, intelligence, and perseverance. A readiness to compromise and willingness for ‘give and take’. The aims and objectives outlined by both national leaders must also be thoroughly understood,” SBY added.

Regarding the US-Iran negotiations specifically, SBY observed that both leaders, Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei, possess distinctive characteristics. Both possess considerable ego, ambition, and personal interests.

“Trump fears that if negotiations fail, his reputation and the glorious ‘legacy’ he seeks to achieve could crumble. Ali Khamenei also fears that if this contentious dispute with America goes badly, it could result in regime change and ‘he must go’. This constitutes a ‘survival interest’ for Iran’s leader,” SBY stated.

According to SBY, many predict that if these negotiations fail, a major war will soon erupt. The conditions are ripe; it merely awaits orders from Trump and Khamenei.

“In my view, whether such seemingly inevitable war will occur is uncertain. Especially if the generals on both sides continue to guide their leaders’ decision-making,” SBY said.

Trump and Khamenei, SBY argued, will not rashly order their forces to war. The risks and costs of an erroneous decision are too high.

Notes for a Commander-in-Chief

SBY provided important guidance for any commander-in-chief considering military action to protect national interests.

First, SBY posed the critical question: whether war must be undertaken or whether alternatives exist? This distinction between “war of necessity” and “war of choice” is fundamental. Ultimately, according to the chairman of the Democratic Party, both sides will determine whether to pursue war or another course.

Second, a nation should only undertake war when rational calculation guarantees victory is achievable. Both Trump and Khamenei, SBY argued, must convince themselves through logic and sound judgment that chosen war can indeed be won.

“Because war concerns the fate and future of the people they lead, who have granted them their mandate and trust—their voices must be heard. The counsel and advice of generals and senior military figures must also be heeded, not buried beneath the excessive ego of the leader,” SBY said.

For America, which has repeatedly threatened to destroy Iran (although Iran has recently reciprocated with threats), SBY urged deep reflection before choosing war.

“I mean, perhaps for America, winning the war is difficult to achieve, and ‘exit’ or ending the war is likewise not easily accomplished. Recall the bitter experience when waging war in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. Remember, Iran is Iran. Iran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan,” SBY said.

Finally, SBY conveyed a message from an Indonesian citizen and citizen of the world through this medium. This message is directed not only at President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei, but to all political leaders worldwide who possess the power to initiate war.