SBY Warns of Regional War and Humanitarian Tragedy Amid US–Israel–Iran Conflict

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) has warned of the potential spillover effects of the war between the United States and Israel against Iran, arguing it could widen into a regional war and trigger a humanitarian catastrophe.

He said he has been closely following developments in the Middle East in recent days to understand the issue in a complete and objective manner.

‘If the war in the Middle East broadens and escalates, there will be implications not only for life in the Middle East but also in many other places around the world,’ SBY said in his SBY Standpoint podcast on his personal YouTube channel, quoted on Wednesday 4 March 2026.

‘The question is, can this escalate? If we look at what’s been going on over the past three days, my answer is: yes. It may already be spreading,’ he added.

SBY explained that initially the conflict involved only Israel and Iran and the United States and Iran.

However, the situation began to change as several Gulf states were affected by retaliatory attacks.

He said the Gulf states that had previously tried to remain neutral eventually became involved after coming under attack.

He argued that the pattern of tit-for-tat exchanges made the conflict become a regional war that is more complex.

‘This has really now become a regional war, with retaliations and counter-retaliations. If originally the United States and Israel were facing Iran, it has become more intricate, because Gulf states attacked by Iran — for example Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Oman — all of them are defending their sovereignty and carrying out retaliations. This is dangerous,’ he said.

SBY also highlighted the possibility of involvement by other states outside the region, including NATO members, if the attacks widen.

He alluded to reports of attacks on British positions in Cyprus.

That could potentially trigger NATO Article 5, which obliges member states to help if one is attacked.

‘And I am thinking, there are indeed troops or a British post in Cyprus that has also been attacked. So, does this fall under NATO Article 5? If a NATO member is attacked by a particular country, the obligation for NATO members to come to the aid, alongside Britain, to fight the country that attacked the British position there, would apply. This is even more dangerous,’ he said.