SBY Confident Prabowo Will Anticipate Economic Impacts of the US–Israel War Against Iran on the APBN

Jakarta — Former Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY) says President Prabowo Subianto will anticipate and prepare for the economic pressures on the APBN if the US–Israel war against Iran disrupts regional energy markets. The confidence was shared on SBY Standpoint, his podcast on his personal YouTube channel, on Wednesday, 4 March 2026. ‘I am confident that Mr Prabowo, our president, will think about this, and now must be prepared properly if the economic and fiscal pressures on us occur because of a war like this,’ SBY said. He noted that the conflict, which has been under way for only a few days, has already disrupted regional economies and is spreading quickly to the global level. If supply is disrupted by war, the impact will be felt directly on the global economy. SBY then highlighted the strategic role of the Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for around 20 per cent of global energy. If that route is blocked, global energy supplies will be disrupted. ‘Well, the economic law says — and I have a PhD in economics — I know: if demand remains unchanged while supply falls because of war, with many tankers sunk and many others not daring to sail from energy-scarce nations, the world will be destabilised and prices will surely rise. In the last two days, prices have already risen by about $20 per barrel.’ SBY warned that if the war is prolonged and OPEC+ countries do not increase production significantly, the shortage of supply will become more pronounced and oil prices will rise sharply. He tied this to Indonesia’s status as a net oil importer. Domestic oil production, he said, is now around 600,000 barrels per day, far down from the 1.5 million barrels per day during his tenure as Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM). ‘When the price per barrel rises, the government must spend heavily to subsidise, because our APBN is based on around $70 per barrel. If it reaches $100, $150, our deficit would be in the hundreds of trillions of rupiah. This is directly due to disruptions to energy supply caused by the war in the Middle East.’ He added that the government would face a difficult choice between maintaining subsidies and risking the APBN or raising fuel and gas prices, which would directly impact the public. ‘Except, in my time, I was willing to raise them by 140 percent; it was not easy, very painful, but I had to take that step to save the economy.’