SBY Analysis on Prospects of Iran-US War and Warning to America Over Bitter Iraq Experience
JAKARTA — War between Iran and the United States is feared imminent if negotiations between the two nations in Geneva fail to produce positive results.
Former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), the country’s sixth president, recognises that Geneva could witness history. The negotiations could produce a “game change” with major implications for global developments.
“Many parties are awaiting the results of these negotiations, particularly nations in the Middle East region. Success or failure? Will it bring peace, or conversely spark a devastating war?” SBY stated through his post on X on Friday evening, 27 February 2026.
According to SBY, all parties understand that negotiations—particularly those concerning Iran’s nuclear programme—are extremely complicated and difficult, with both sides struggling to build acceptable options. The interests of the two nations differ greatly.
Negotiators must also be astute in reading the minds of the two leaders who have mandated them: President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei.
“Building harmony between negotiators and their superiors may also not be easy,” SBY said.
As someone with knowledge and experience in conflict resolution at both national and international levels, SBY notes that negotiations are exhausting. They require patience, intelligence and persistence.
“Readiness to compromise and willingness for give-and-take. The desires and objectives set by both national leaders must also be clearly understood,” he said.
Regarding US-Iran negotiations specifically, SBY observes that both leaders—Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei—possess “uniqueness”. Both, he clarifies, have ego, ambition and “personal interest”.
Trump fears that if negotiations fail, his desired reputation and legacy could collapse. Conversely, Khamenei also fears that if this bitter dispute with America goes badly, it could result in regime change and “he must go”. This represents a “survival interest” for Iran’s leader.
Many predict or conclude that if negotiations fail, major war will soon erupt. The conditions are ripe; it only awaits Trump and Khamenei’s orders.
However, SBY believes that such seemingly inevitable war could happen, or could not. Especially if generals on both sides continue to guide their leaders’ decision-making.
Trump and Khamenei will not rashly order their troops to war. “The risks and costs they would pay if their decision is wrong are too high,” SBY clarified.
According to this senior Democratic Party politician, there are important considerations for a “commander-in-chief” when choosing war to serve national interests.
First, whether war is necessary or other options remain? “This is what is often called ‘war of necessity’ and ‘war of choice’. Ultimately, both sides will decide whether to wage war or pursue other paths,” said the former Pangdam II/Sriwijaya during 1996-1997.
Second, according to SBY, a nation should wage war only if rational calculation guarantees victory. Both Trump and Khamenei must convince themselves, using logic and common sense, that the war they choose will indeed be winnable.
“Because war concerns the fate and future of the people they lead, who have given them their mandate and trust, their voice must be heard,” he explained.
The considerations and advice of generals and military leaders, SBY emphasised, must also be heeded, not buried beneath a leader’s excessive ego.