JAKARTA \u2014 War between Iran and the United States is feared imminent\nif negotiations between the two nations in Geneva fail to produce\npositive results.<\/p>\n
Former Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (SBY), the\ncountry\u2019s sixth president, recognises that Geneva could witness history.\nThe negotiations could produce a \u201cgame change\u201d with major implications\nfor global developments.<\/p>\n
\u201cMany parties are awaiting the results of these negotiations,\nparticularly nations in the Middle East region. Success or failure? Will\nit bring peace, or conversely spark a devastating war?\u201d SBY stated\nthrough his post on X on Friday evening, 27 February 2026.<\/p>\n
According to SBY, all parties understand that\nnegotiations\u2014particularly those concerning Iran\u2019s nuclear programme\u2014are\nextremely complicated and difficult, with both sides struggling to build\nacceptable options. The interests of the two nations differ greatly.<\/p>\n
Negotiators must also be astute in reading the minds of the two\nleaders who have mandated them: President Trump and Ayatollah\nKhamenei.<\/p>\n
\u201cBuilding harmony between negotiators and their superiors may also\nnot be easy,\u201d SBY said.<\/p>\n
As someone with knowledge and experience in conflict resolution at\nboth national and international levels, SBY notes that negotiations are\nexhausting. They require patience, intelligence and persistence.<\/p>\n
\u201cReadiness to compromise and willingness for give-and-take. The\ndesires and objectives set by both national leaders must also be clearly\nunderstood,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n
Regarding US-Iran negotiations specifically, SBY observes that both\nleaders\u2014Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei\u2014possess \u201cuniqueness\u201d. Both, he\nclarifies, have ego, ambition and \u201cpersonal interest\u201d.<\/p>\n
Trump fears that if negotiations fail, his desired reputation and\nlegacy could collapse. Conversely, Khamenei also fears that if this\nbitter dispute with America goes badly, it could result in regime change\nand \u201che must go\u201d. This represents a \u201csurvival interest\u201d for Iran\u2019s\nleader.<\/p>\n
Many predict or conclude that if negotiations fail, major war will\nsoon erupt. The conditions are ripe; it only awaits Trump and Khamenei\u2019s\norders.<\/p>\n
However, SBY believes that such seemingly inevitable war could\nhappen, or could not. Especially if generals on both sides continue to\nguide their leaders\u2019 decision-making.<\/p>\n
Trump and Khamenei will not rashly order their troops to war. \u201cThe\nrisks and costs they would pay if their decision is wrong are too high,\u201d\nSBY clarified.<\/p>\n
According to this senior Democratic Party politician, there are\nimportant considerations for a \u201ccommander-in-chief\u201d when choosing war to\nserve national interests.<\/p>\n
First, whether war is necessary or other options remain? \u201cThis is\nwhat is often called \u2018war of necessity\u2019 and \u2018war of choice\u2019. Ultimately,\nboth sides will decide whether to wage war or pursue other paths,\u201d said\nthe former Pangdam II\/Sriwijaya during 1996-1997.<\/p>\n
Second, according to SBY, a nation should wage war only if rational\ncalculation guarantees victory. Both Trump and Khamenei must convince\nthemselves, using logic and common sense, that the war they choose will\nindeed be winnable.<\/p>\n
\u201cBecause war concerns the fate and future of the people they lead,\nwho have given them their mandate and trust, their voice must be heard,\u201d\nhe explained.<\/p>\n
The considerations and advice of generals and military leaders, SBY\nemphasised, must also be heeded, not buried beneath a leader\u2019s excessive\nego.<\/p>", "url": "https:\/\/jawawa.id\/newsitem\/sby-analysis-on-prospects-of-iran-us-war-and-warning-to-america-over-bitter-iraq-experience-1772204509", "image": "" }, "sponsor": "Okusi Associates", "sponsor_url": "https:\/\/okusiassociates.com" }