S&P Deems Indonesia's Debt Rating Most Vulnerable in Southeast Asia

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - Rating agency S&P Global Ratings considers Indonesia’s debt rating the most vulnerable in Southeast Asia. Risks are rising with the surge in energy prices and limited fiscal buffers.

S&P’s latest report, released on Tuesday (14/4/2026), highlights the potential pressure on sovereign ratings in the region. Risks will increase if the conflict in the Middle East drags on.

Indonesia is deemed the most affected. Its fiscal position is relatively more limited compared to other countries in the region.

“In Southeast Asia, we assess that Indonesia’s debt rating will be more vulnerable if the conflict drags on,” S&P writes.

The cost of oil imports is also rising. The impact is evident in the potential widening of the current account deficit.

This situation triggers an increase in yields on Government Securities (SBN). The impact is seen in the rise in government borrowing costs.

“A temporary deterioration in fiscal performance, or a moderate increase in the debt ratio, is unlikely to trigger a downgrade action,” S&P writes.

Thailand faces risks of economic slowdown and narrowing fiscal space. The country is still supported by monetary policy and relatively strong external conditions.

Vietnam is assessed to have sufficient buffers. Risks still arise from rising energy import costs and potential declines in foreign exchange reserves.