Russia Could Secretly Make Huge Profits From the Iran War — Here's How
Jakarta, CNBC Indonesia - The prolonged energy crisis triggered by the widening conflict in the Middle East has the potential to become a lifeline for Russia’s war machine. Indeed, the Kremlin’s economy had previously begun showing signs of strain from a barrage of international sanctions.
The weakening of the Iranian regime, or its possible collapse, would indeed be detrimental to the Kremlin, because it would lose one of its closest regional partners. However, that loss is expected to be offset by massive economic gains if global supply disruptions push buyers to turn to Russian energy, coupled with the potential slowdown of Western weapons supplies to Ukraine.
‘When one fifth of global oil supplies and about a quarter of sea trade are effectively locked down, that is a winning position for Russia,’ said Sergey Vakulenko, senior researcher at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Centre and a leading expert on the Russian energy sector, quoted by The Guardian on Thursday (5 March 2026).
Brent crude rose more than 7% on Tuesday to exceed US$80 per barrel, adding to a 7.2% jump on Monday. This sharp rise occurred after shipments through the Strait of Hormuz were suspended, followed by Iranian missile and drone strikes on regional infrastructure.
The surge pushed prices to their highest since July 2024, and analysts predict the upward trend will continue. India and China, as the largest buyers of Middle East crude, will be among the hardest hit by the prolonged disruption and are likely to be forced to increase purchases from Moscow.
Although Beijing has long diversified its oil imports away from the Middle East, Africa, and Russia, ongoing disruption to Gulf supplies—especially from Iran—could accelerate a deeper shift toward Russian oil. Vakulenko assesses that this situation will drastically alter the map of the Asian energy market.
‘Some of the Russian oil that has been held up in tankers for some time will surely find buyers now,’ Vakulenko added.
India currently faces a more difficult dilemma in balancing its energy needs. Based on a trade deal with Donald Trump last month, New Delhi had begun replacing some Russian cargoes with Gulf oil, cutting imports from Moscow to their lowest level since 2022.
However, if Middle Eastern supplies falter, Indian officials are likely to seek greater flexibility from Washington to reopen the door to increased Russian oil purchases. The shift would collectively strengthen Russia’s bargaining position for higher prices in international markets.
For months, Moscow has been forced to offer steep price discounts due to abundant global supply and the risk of sanctions that kept traders cautious. Storage capacity has dwindled, and there are signs that Russia may be forced to cut production as cargoes struggle to find buyers.
The long-term impact of the crisis will depend heavily on the duration of the conflict. Importing nations typically have oil reserves for three months, and the Gulf’s energy infrastructure damaged will determine how severe the supply shock will be going forward.
‘If this lasts only two weeks, it won’t have much of an impact. If it lasts longer, then things will start to become interesting,’ Vakulenko said.
In addition to oil, Russia could also profit from a shock in global gas prices. The suspension of Qatar LNG exports would leave a large gap in global supply that could be filled by Russian producers, with energy stocks such as Gazprom and Novatek already rising on the Moscow stock market.
This momentum is bad news for Ukraine, as Russia’s oil and gas revenues had fallen to their lowest in five years in 2025. The decline in revenue previously gave Kyiv hope that Moscow would struggle to sustain the intensity of its campaign through 2026.
‘For our budget, an attack on Iran is a big added value. If Trump attacks Iran’s oil fields, then, although it sounds unfortunate, we would be among the few oil-producing countries left,’ said Vladimir Solovyov, a prominent Kremlin TV host, in his programme.