Rupiah Weakens: Should We FOMO Buy US Dollars?

JAKARTA, KOMPAS.com - The weakening of the rupiah exchange rate does not have to be met with excessive worry. Moreover, fear accompanied by actions to convert rupiah to US dollars would only deepen the pressure on the domestic currency. The weakening of the rupiah exchange rate often triggers a tendency among investors or some people to shift savings to foreign currencies, especially the US dollar. Such steps are generally driven by the need to preserve asset value amid risks of domestic currency depreciation. For context, the rupiah exchange rate in the spot market weakened by 16 points or 0.09 percent at the close of trading on Wednesday (15/4/2026). This trend extends the pressure on the domestic currency, with projections of further weakening still open. Currency and Commodities Analyst, Ibrahim Assuaibi, views the conversion of rupiah to US dollars as a rational response when expectations emerge that the exchange rate weakening will continue. According to him, when projections indicate that the rupiah still has potential to weaken, market participants tend to anticipate the decline in value by moving assets to stronger currencies. “If the public converts rupiah to dollars, it could happen because there is a high likelihood that the rupiah is heading towards Rp17,400 (per US dollar); if Rp17,400 is breached, it could reach Rp17,800, just a matter of waiting,” said Ibrahim when contacted by Kompas.com on Wednesday evening. Nevertheless, when there is a surge in demand for US dollars, it has the potential to worsen the pressure on the Garuda currency. On a broader scale, mass conversion behaviour can accelerate exchange rate depreciation. “Because the dollar is getting higher and this will also have a negative impact on the rupiah currency. Now, if we look at it, the weakening of the rupiah currency is likely to continue,” he stated. Economist and Executive Director of the Center of Economic and Law Studies (CELIOS), Bhima Yudhistira Adhinegara, believes the government needs to immediately set clear policy priorities amid the rupiah’s weakening exchange rate. According to him, controlling inflation must be the primary focus, especially since the current inflationary pressure is cost-push in nature, triggered by rising costs of raw materials and energy. This condition is exacerbated by the threat of El Niño up to increases in fertiliser prices.