Rupiah Weakens, Import-Dependent Industries and Banking Prepare for Pressure in H2 2026

JAKARTA – The rupiah’s weakening is expected to exert significant pressure on several economic sectors in H2 2026, particularly industries dependent on imports, holding foreign currency debt, or using significant energy in production costs.

Professor Syafruddin Karimi of Andalas University’s Economics Department said import-dependent manufacturing sectors are among the most vulnerable if exchange rate pressure continues.

“The most vulnerable sectors in H2 2026 are those dependent on imports, holding foreign currency debt, or using significant energy in production costs,” Syafruddin said on Friday, 29 May 2026.

Beyond manufacturing, the transport sector is also expected to face significant pressure due to high dependence on fuel and US dollar-based components.

“Airlines, logistics, and import retail will face margin pressure,” he said.

He added that companies with rupiah-denominated revenue but dollar-denominated debt will face the most significant cash flow pressure if the rupiah continues to weaken.

“Companies with rupiah revenue and dollar liabilities will face the heaviest cash flow pressure,” he said.

Further impacts could spread to the banking sector. Syafruddin warned that risks may rise if foreign currency borrowers struggle to meet loan repayments.

“Banks will also be affected if foreign currency borrowers find it hard to repay loans,” he said.