Rupiah Weakens Following Report of IDR 54.6 Trillion State Budget Deficit in January 2026

Jakarta, VIVA – The rupiah exchange rate against the US dollar is predicted to remain volatile, but is expected to close weaker in today’s trading session.

Based on data from the Jakarta Interbank Spot Dollar Rate (JISDOR) published by Bank Indonesia, the rupiah stood at IDR 16,818 per dollar on Monday, 23 February 2026. This represented a 67-point strengthening from the previous rate of IDR 16,885 on Friday, 20 February 2026.

Meanwhile, in spot market trading on Tuesday, 24 February 2026, as of 09:22 WIB, the rupiah was transacted at IDR 16,829 per dollar. This position represented a weakening of 27 points or 0.16 per cent from the previous level of IDR 16,802 per dollar.

Economic and money market analyst Ibrahim Assuaibi noted that the Ministry of Finance recorded a state budget (APBN) deficit of IDR 54.6 trillion at the end of January 2026, equivalent to 0.21 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP).

The deficit breakdown shows that state revenue reached IDR 172.7 trillion in January 2026, equivalent to 5.5 per cent of the full-year revenue target of IDR 3,153.6 trillion.

Meanwhile, state expenditure had already reached IDR 227.3 trillion in January 2026, equivalent to 5.9 per cent of the full-year expenditure target of IDR 3,842.7 trillion. This means government spending continued to exceed revenue.

As a result, the state budget deficit reached IDR 54.6 trillion, or 0.21 per cent of GDP. This figure remains well controlled and within the 2026 budget design corridor.

Furthermore, the primary balance deficit was recorded at IDR 4.2 trillion, whilst the primary balance was designed to run a deficit of IDR 89.7 trillion. When compared with the same period last year, there has been a notable increase in the budget deficit.

At the end of January 2024, the state budget deficit reached IDR 23 trillion, or 0.09 per cent of GDP — some IDR 31.6 trillion lower than the January 2026 figure. For reference, the government has designed the full-year 2026 budget deficit at IDR 689.1 trillion, or 2.68 per cent of GDP.

“The rupiah will be volatile but is expected to close weaker in the range of IDR 16,770 to IDR 16,800,” Assuaibi said.

Markets continue to monitor the third round of nuclear talks between the United States and Iran, held on Thursday in Geneva, raising hopes that tensions may ease. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told CBS’s “Face the Nation” programme on Sunday that there was a good chance of reaching a diplomatic solution and that such a solution was within reach — comments interpreted by markets as a signal of willingness to compromise.