Rupiah Weakens, Economist: Not Due to Internal Factors, No Impact on Purchasing Power
Economist Surya Vandiantara assesses that the current weakening of the rupiah exchange rate is not caused by internal factors. Consequently, it does not affect the purchasing power of the public.
According to him, internal factors behind the weakening of the rupiah exchange rate are caused by two things: weak economic growth in a country or high imports of goods that lead to a trade balance deficit, thereby increasing demand for foreign currency.
“The Central Statistics Agency (BPS) recorded YoY economic growth in Q1 2026 at a positive 5.61 per cent, as well as Q4 2025 at 5.39 per cent, and Q3 2025 at 5.04 per cent. This condition shows that domestic economic growth has a positive and stable trend,” said this lecturer from the Faculty of Economics at Muhammadiyah University of Bengkulu.
Meanwhile, Surya said, BPS also recorded a surplus in the trade balance. In March 2026, exports were recorded at $22.53 billion, while imports only reached $19.21 billion.
“Considering the positive and stable economic growth, as well as the surplus trade balance, it is not due to internal factors and will not significantly affect the purchasing power of the public,” he explained.
Regarding external debt, Bank Indonesia (BI) reported in April 2026 that the ratio of External Debt (ULN) to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is at 29.8 per cent, with long-term ULN dominating at 84.9 per cent of total ULN.
Based on this data, Surya assesses that Indonesia’s debt position is still in the safe category. This is judged from the debt repayment capacity ratio.
“Various economic theories attempt to provide a threshold for the debt health ratio. The threshold ratio is usually set at one-third or 40 per cent of total income. Bank Indonesia’s report stating that the ULN to GDP ratio is at 29.8 per cent shows that the ULN ratio is below one-third or below 40 per cent of total GDP, so it can be concluded that ULN is still within the safe threshold,” he stated.
Furthermore, Surya said, the loan tenor also plays an important role in measuring the health of ULN. The longer the tenor for debt repayment, the lower the debt payment obligation value in each payment period.
“The dominance of long-term ULN reaching 84.9 per cent further strengthens the assessment of the health of Indonesia’s ULN,” he concluded.